Week 5
Apr 20–Apr 26

Garth is coming off the upset of the season, a 6–3 win over Keanu where the rotation posted a 2.67 ERA and José Ramírez stole 6 bases. Skubal, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Civale, and Eovaldi headline the active staff. The lineup has Olson, Walker, Greene, Duran, and Ramírez. Carlos Rodón (IL-15: Elbow) and Trey Yesavage (IL-15: Shoulder) are the only injuries of note. The big sim tilt against him is the K column (84% Ete edge): Joe Ryan, Eury Pérez, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Luzardo, and Mahle is a more strikeout-heavy mound staff than what Skubal’s group can usually produce in one week.

Ete just won 6–3 over Rain City behind 42 RBI (league best) and 9 HR. The sim has Ete favored at 57%, with the SB category at 90% and the K category at 84%. The rotation runs Joe Ryan, Eury Pérez, Ryne Nelson, Bailey Ober, and Aaron Nola, with Nolan McLean, Sonny Gray, Luzardo, and Mahle all available off the bench. Cody Bellinger (2 HR, 6 RBI) and Elly De La Cruz (2 HR, 5 R) led the Week 4 lineup. Jackson Chourio (IL-10: Hand), Matthew Boyd (IL-15: Biceps), and Josh Hader (IL-60) are the IL list. The roster is starting to look like the team that finished 1st in 2025.

TylerV is coming off a 9–0 all-play, 8–1 H2H beatdown of Busch where Aaron Judge and Mike Trout combined for 10 HR. The rotation goes Cole Ragans, Shohei Ohtani, Cam Schlittler, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff, Mitch Keller, McClanahan, Sheehan, Gallen, Castillo. Hunter Greene (IL-60), Shane Bieber (IL-60), and Jhoan Duran (IL-15) are the absences but the depth is so wide it does not really matter. The K edge against Allahu is 90%, the QS edge is 62%, OBP is 61%. The only loss the sim sees is SV (25% Ragans) because Allahu has Edwin Díaz and Domínguez carrying the closer corps.

TylerR is a mess. Freddie Freeman (NA: Personal) is the headliner and pulls a key bat. Jackson Holliday is IL-10. Nick Pivetta is IL-15 (Forearm). Justin Steele is IL-60. Logan Henderson is NA. The rotation now leans on Logan Gilbert, Kevin Gausman, Jeffrey Springs, with Senga, Suarez, Bibee, Soroka, and Arrighetti as bench depth. Yordan Alvarez (3 HR, 6 RBI), Oneil Cruz (2 HR, 4 SB), and Christian Walker put up real Week 4 numbers. The closers (Díaz, Domínguez, Helsley) are strong enough to win SV but the rest of this matchup tilts hard to Ragans.

Mario is fresh off an 8–2 hammering of Good Vibes Only. The rotation is Robbie Ray, Bryan Woo, Reid Detmers, Brady Singer, with Tyler Glasnow on the bench when healthy. Bullpen has Mason Miller (3 SV last week) and Ryan Helsley (2 SV). The lineup runs James Wood (3 HR last week), Brice Turang (3 HR, 7 RBI), Hunter Goodman, Angel Martínez, and Konnor Griffin. Gerrit Cole (IL-15), Blake Snell (IL-15), and Zach Eflin (IL-60) keep the rotation thinner than it should be. Nick gets one category outright in the sim: OBP (58%). Everything else is close or unfavorable.

Duke Joe is coming off the worst week of his season (4–5 all-play, 39 cat wins) and Juan Soto is now IL-10 (calf). The rotation is still ten-deep though: Cam Sanchez, Gavin Williams, Andrew Abbott, Drew Rasmussen, Noah Cameron starting, with Wacha, Cabrera, Baz, Fried, and Sasaki on the bench. The 90% K edge and 77% SV edge on Mason Miller’s rotation tells the story: Keanu’s pitching depth is too much for Mario’s. The lineup loses Soto’s OBP but still has Drake Baldwin (whose Week 4 was 0 HR / 7 R after his 5 HR Week 3), Nico Hoerner (10 RBI in Week 4), Byron Buxton (3 HR), and Josh Naylor.

Michael just had the worst all-play week of any team this season: 0–9, 21 cat wins. The rotation now goes Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Grant Holmes, MacKenzie Gore, Andrew Painter active, with Will Warren, Max Scherzer, Vasquez, and Bradish on the bench. Mookie Betts (IL-10: Oblique) and Brent Rooker (IL-10: Oblique) are out. Ryan Pepiot (IL-60) is gone for the foreseeable. Ben Rice (3 HR Week 4) is the main bat working. The 6.72 ERA from Week 4 was probably an outlier but the underlying roster is hollow. Sim has GVO at 34%.

Michael (the other one) just won 6–4 over Allahu with 14 HR, 7 QS, and 77 K. Trevor Rogers, Joey Cantillo, Noah Schultz, and Framber Valdez are the active starters, with Taj Bradley, Chris Sale, Logan Webb, Parker Messick, Jack Leiter, and Emerson Hancock on the bench. That is ten healthy SPs on one roster. Adley Rutschman just hit IL-10 (Ankle), but Daniel Palencia (IL-15) is the only other notable injury. Kyle Tucker (2 HR), CJ Abrams (2 HR), and Dillon Dingler (2 HR, 6 RBI) carried Week 4. Buckner is favored 66% with sweep paths through R, OBP, and QS.

Taylor has the league’s best pitching for two weeks running (2.14 ERA, 1.10 WHIP last week) and the league’s worst hitting for two weeks running (30 R, 5 HR in Week 4). Skenes, deGrom, Bryce Elder, and Seth Lugo are the active starters. The IL list (Wheeler, Lodolo) hurts but Eduardo Rodriguez, Imanaga, Merrill Kelly, and Braxton Ashcraft are bench depth. Christian Yelich (IL-10) is the offensive blow. Roman Anthony, Tatís Jr., Lindor, and Liam Hicks are the lineup. Sim has Taylor at 25%. The K edge (58%) and QS edge (53%) are the only categories that lean his way.

Rose has six pitchers either on IL or DTD: Hunter Brown (IL-15), Bryce Miller (IL-15), Spencer Strider (IL-15), Tatsuya Imai (IL-15), George Springer (IL-10), plus Corbin Carroll DTD. The active rotation for the start of the week is George Kirby and Reynaldo López. Misiorowski, Bubic, Soriano, and Weathers are on the bench and will get activated when they pitch. Sal Stewart (3 HR last week), JJ Wetherholt (2 HR, 7 R), and Carroll (1 HR) carried Week 4’s offense in a 1–8 loss. The lineup is still strong enough to win this matchup; the staff just needs to not collapse.