5 Matchups H2H Categories
Allahu Alvarez gets the test. After the best weekly all-play of the season (8–0–1, 53 cat wins, 1.16 ERA, .88 WHIP), TylerR draws Keanu Reeves, the cumulative #2. Sim has Keanu 52%. Yordan and Max Muncy are both DTD and the Allahu rotation gets a 5–0 plus 14 HR run for the second straight week or this is the matchup that calls it a fluke. Best test on the board for the 8th-place team that just looked elite.
Sonny rotation gets the deep-end test. Cumulative #1 vs #10. Sonny (cumulative 442 cats) draws Rain City (cumulative 322 cats). The interesting wrinkle: Rain City is now rolling Skenes, deGrom, Wheeler, Imanaga, Lodolo as a top-end rotation while Sonny is missing Cole Ragans, Woodruff, and Jared Jones from theirs. Sim still says 69% Sonny because the lineup gap is real, but the pitching matchup is closer than the record suggests.
Ete Crow's bounce-back call. 0–8–1 all-play to ending the week 7th in the standings. Jace gets Nick-fil-A as the 75% favorite, same structural matchup that ended in disaster last week (62% favored, tied). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be back from DTD. Hunter Greene, Glasnow, Helsley all out for Nick. If the offense disappears against a depleted Nick rotation, the storyline shifts from variance to chronic.
OBT–Buckner is the rotation depth showdown. Two teams with active SP rotations averaging 4 healthy starters apiece. Sim has Buckner 75% on lineup edges (Yandy, Murakami, Henderson, Tucker) but OBT has the closer corps (Jansen, Bednar, Megill, 83% SV edge). The K cat is essentially even. This is the matchup where the lineups decide everything; if Garth’s offense outscores expectation, the sim model gets to 0–4 versus OBT.
Romance Explosion has to remember how to hit. Same lineup that went 8–1 in Week 8 went 0–6–3 in Week 9. Michael 1 dropped Buehler and the Hey Holmes! brand name in the same week. Now he draws Busch Latte at 30%. Both teams are 29–46–5 in the standings. Busch has the depth, Romance has the higher ceiling. Variance is variance until it happens twice.
One Ball Two Strikes
The Buckner Boots
OBT just took a 5–4 over Nick and is sitting in 3rd place. Garth dropped Zac Gallen Sunday for Foster Griffin again. Skubal still IL, Jeffers still IL. The rotation behind Yamamoto, Alcantara, Foster Griffin, Casey Mize is solid but not deep; Eovaldi, Rodón, Yesavage, and Chase Burns all sitting on the bench as cover. The closer corps with Jansen, Bednar, Megill remains the strongest in OBT’s 9 weeks.
Buckner is coming off the 5–5 tie with Rain City that ruined a 72% sim favor. Webb still IL, Seager still IL, but Framber Valdez, Parker Messick, Trevor Rogers are the active rotation with Roki Sasaki, Taj Bradley, Chris Sale all on bench for additional starts. The lineup with Murakami, CJ Abrams, Henderson, Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bregman, Rutschman, Nimmo is deeper than the record suggests. The bullpen behind Baker, Palencia, Williams, Thielbar is one of the league’s deepest after Allahu’s.
CShea LangeliersATH
1BMatt OlsonATL
2BOtto LopezMIA
3BJosé RamírezCLE
SSGeraldo PerdomoAZ
OFJarren DuranBOS
OFJordan WalkerSTL
OFTaylor WardBAL
UtilRiley GreeneDET
UtilJeremy PeñaHOU
BNBo BichetteNYM
BNWillson ContrerasDTDBOS
SPYoshinobu YamamotoLAD
SPSandy AlcantaraMIA
RPDavid BednarNYY
RPTrevor MegillMIL
PKyle FinneganDET
PMerrill KellyAZ
PKeider MonteroDET
BNTrey YesavageTOR
BNCarlos RodónNYY
BNNathan EovaldiTEX
BNChase BurnsCIN
ILCasey MizeDET
ILKenley JansenDET
ILTarik SkubalDET
NAKade AndersonNASEA
SPAnthony KayCWS
SP,RPFoster GriffinWSH
CAdley RutschmanBAL
1BYandy DíazTB
2BKetel MarteAZ
3BAlex BregmanCHC
SSCJ AbramsWSH
OFKyle TuckerLAD
OFBrandon NimmoTEX
OFJJ BledayCIN
UtilGunnar HendersonBAL
UtilA.J. EwingNYM
ILMunetaka MurakamiCWS
ILCorey SeagerTEX
SPFramber ValdezDET
SPZack LittellWSH
RPBryan BakerTB
RPDaniel PalenciaCHC
PBen BrownCHC
PDevin WilliamsNYM
PParker MessickCLE
PRoki SasakiLAD
BNTaj BradleyMIN
BNLogan WebbSF
BNGage JumpATH
BNChris SaleATL
BNEmerson HancockSEA
It’s Always Sonny
Rain City Bombers
Sonny is the cumulative #1 in cat wins (442) by 3 over Keanu, just lost the H2H 4–5 to Keanu but still posted 5–3–1 all-play. Cal Raleigh, Wyatt Langford, Cole Ragans, Brandon Woodruff all IL. Jared Jones now on 60-day. TylerV added Spencer Steer (lineup) and Samuel Basallo (C replacement) and pulled Jared Jones drop earlier in the cycle. Active rotation behind Ohtani-the-pitcher, Schlittler, King, Ashcraft, Roupp with Sonny Gray, Mitch Keller, Ryne Nelson on bench. Closer Jhoan Duran anchors.
Rain City came out of a 5–5 tie with Buckner. Lindor IL, Roman Anthony IL, now Blake Snell IL too (added Snell was rendered moot). The rotation now leans on Skenes, deGrom, Imanaga, Wheeler, Lodolo, with Max Meyer, Bryce Elder, Nick Martinez on bench. That’s the deepest top-end SP group Taylor has fielded all year. The lineup with Trout, Manny Machado, Michael Harris II, Ivan Herrera is a fraction of what Rain City was supposed to be. Cade Smith still closing.
CSamuel BasalloBAL
1BNick KurtzATH
2BFernando Tatis Jr.SD
3BAustin RileyATL
SSTrea TurnerPHI
OFAaron JudgeNYY
OFJackson ChourioMIL
OFAndy PagesLAD
UtilKevin McGonigleDET
UtilSpencer SteerCIN
BNCal RaleighSEA
ILWyatt LangfordTEX
NAKaelen CulpepperNAMIN
SPShohei Ohtani (Pitcher)LAD
SPCam SchlittlerNYY
RPJhoan DuranPHI
RPRiley O'BrienSTL
PMichael KingSD
PBraxton AshcraftPIT
PSonny GrayBOS
PLanden RouppSF
BNRyne NelsonAZ
BNMitch KellerPIT
BNEmmet SheehanLAD
BNJared JonesPIT
ILCole RagansKC
ILBrandon WoodruffMIL
CLiam HicksMIA
1BMiguel VargasCWS
2BMaikel GarciaDTDKC
3BManny MachadoSD
SSJosé CaballeroNYY
OFTyler SoderstromATH
OFChristian YelichMIL
OFMike TroutLAA
UtilIvan HerreraSTL
UtilMichael Harris IIATL
BNNasim NuñezWSH
BNWill SmithLAD
ILFrancisco LindorNYM
ILRoman AnthonyBOS
SPPaul SkenesPIT
SPNick MartinezTB
RPCade SmithCLE
RPAbner UribeMIL
PShota ImanagaCHC
PZack WheelerPHI
PMax MeyerMIA
PNick LodoloCIN
BNStephen KolekKC
BNJacob deGromTEX
BNBryce ElderATL
ILBlake SnellLAD
Nick-fil-A
Ete Crow
Nick-fil-A just lost 4–5 to OBT in a matchup where the sim said 40%. Hunter Greene 60-day IL. Tyler Glasnow IL. Ryan Helsley IL. Mario picked up Andrew Painter (May 24) to add a rotation arm. Gerrit Cole back on the bench as he works his way back. The lineup still has James Wood, Junior Caminero, Konnor Griffin, Daylen Lile, Ronald Acuña Jr., Brice Turang. Mason Miller anchors the closer slot but Helsley is now out too. Two straight weeks of being a sim underdog after the Week 8 disaster.
Ete Crow had the choke of the week: 0–8–1 all-play, 28 cat wins, tied 4–4 with Romance. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. DTD heading in is now better. Mickey Moniak still IL. Matthew Boyd IL, Josh Hader IL. Rotation behind Bailey Ober, Martín Pérez, Jesús Luzardo, Nolan McLean, Payton Tolle with Eury Pérez, Joe Ryan, Shane McClanahan on bench as cover. The bullpen with Tanner Scott and Raisel Iglesias is the league’s second-best closer pair. Bounce-back matchup against a beat-up Nick rotation.
CHunter GoodmanCOL
1BVinnie PasquantinoKC
2BBrice TurangMIL
3BJunior CamineroTB
SSColt EmersonSEA
OFJames WoodWSH
OFRonald Acuña Jr.ATL
OFChase DeLauterCLE
UtilCurtis MeadWSH
UtilJoc PedersonTEX
BNKonnor GriffinPIT
2B,SSBrayan RocchioCLE
OFDaylen LileWSH
SPRobbie RaySF
SPAndrew PainterPHI
RPMason MillerSD
RPRico GarciaBAL
PJacob LatzTEX
BNSeth LugoKC
BNBryan WooSEA
BNJustin WrobleskiLAD
BNDavis MartinCWS
BNGerrit ColeNYY
BNMichael McGreevySTL
BNEduardo RodriguezAZ
ILHunter GreeneCIN
ILTyler GlasnowLAD
ILRyan HelsleyBAL
SP,RPGriffin JaxTB
CSalvador PerezKC
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
2BOzzie AlbiesATL
3BKazuma OkamotoTOR
SSElly De La CruzDTDCIN
OFPete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
OFCody BellingerNYY
OFRyan WaldschmidtAZ
UtilAlec BurlesonSTL
UtilBrandon LowePIT
BNRamón LaureanoSD
ILMickey MoniakCOL
SPJoe RyanMIN
SPEury PérezMIA
RPTanner ScottLAD
RPRaisel IglesiasATL
PJesús LuzardoPHI
PNolan McLeanNYM
PBrad KellerPHI
PShane McClanahanTB
BNKumar RockerTEX
BNBailey OberMIN
BNPayton TolleBOS
BNMartín PérezATL
ILMatthew BoydCHC
ILJosh HaderHOU
Romance Explosion
Busch Latte
Romance Explosion (formerly Hey Holmes!) went from weekly champ (Week 8, 8–1 all-play) to dead last (Week 9, 0–6–3). Michael 1 dropped Walker Buehler, picked up Reid Detmers (May 24), added Lucas Giolito then dropped him again. Jose Altuve IL, Dylan Cease DTD, Clay Holmes 60-day, Crochet still IL. Active rotation now MacKenzie Gore, Reid Detmers, Kyle Bradish only. J.T. Ginn, Soroka, Cantillo, Vásquez, Will Warren all on bench. The lineup with Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Nolan Arenado, Teoscar Hernández, Ben Rice is still the same group that ran a 58–27 cat record two weeks ago. Variance.
Busch just lost 4–5 to Allahu in a matchup where Busch led the league in OBP (.402) and led with a 2.94 ERA. Hunter Brown 60-day, Edwin Díaz 60-day, Kris Bubic IL. Rose picked up Walbert Ureña and Troy Melton. Rotation: George Kirby, Troy Melton, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Weathers active. Soriano, Strider, Kyle Harrison, Tatsuya Imai, Jacob Misiorowski all on bench, healthy. Paul Sewald closes. The lineup with Ohtani, Arozarena, JJ Wetherholt, Corbin Carroll, Sal Stewart, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the league’s best all-around.
CBen RiceNYY
1BBryce HarperPHI
2BAngel MartínezDTDCLE
3BEugenio SuárezCIN
SSMookie BettsLAD
OFJulio RodríguezSEA
OFBrent RookerATH
OFChandler SimpsonTB
UtilPete AlonsoBAL
UtilDansby SwansonCHC
BNNolan ArenadoAZ
BNJose AltuveHOU
ILTeoscar HernándezLAD
SPReid DetmersLAA
SPJ.T. GinnATH
RPLucas ErcegKC
RPRobert SuarezATL
PGrant HolmesATL
BNKai-Wei TengHOU
BNMacKenzie GoreTEX
BNMichael SorokaAZ
BNRandy VásquezSD
BNKyle BradishBAL
BNWill WarrenNYY
ILDylan CeaseTOR
ILGarrett CrochetBOS
SP,RPEric LauerLAD
SP,RPJoey CantilloCLE
CWilliam ContrerasMIL
1BJonathan ArandaTB
2BJazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
3BSal StewartCIN
SSJJ WetherholtSTL
OFCorbin CarrollAZ
OFRandy ArozarenaSEA
OFSeiya SuzukiCHC
UtilShohei Ohtani (Batter)LAD
UtilMichael BuschCHC
BNGeorge SpringerTOR
BNLuke KeaschallMIN
SPGeorge KirbySEA
SPJacob MisiorowskiMIL
RPPaul SewaldAZ
RPAntonio SenzatelaCOL
PSpencer StriderATL
PTatsuya ImaiHOU
BNRyan WeathersNYY
BNWalbert UreñaLAA
BNJosé SorianoLAA
BNKyle HarrisonMIL
BNTroy MeltonDET
ILHunter BrownHOU
ILEdwin DíazLAD
ILKris BubicKC
Keanu Reeves
Allahu Alvarez
Keanu just beat the league leader Sonny 5–4 and is sitting at #2 in cumulative cats. Drake Baldwin still IL, Juan Soto DTD with illness, Ryan O’Hearn IL, Edward Cabrera IL, Max Fried IL. Duke Joe added Peter Lambert and Zebby Matthews to the rotation. Active SP group: Cristopher Sánchez, Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen, Zebby Matthews, Peter Lambert with Michael Wacha, Gavin Williams, Luis Severino, Andrew Abbott on bench. Aroldis Chapman closing, Pete Fairbanks the backup. The lineup with Schwarber, Buxton, Soto, Gavin Sheets is HR-heavy.
Allahu Alvarez just put up the best weekly all-play line of the season: 8–0–1 with 53 cat wins, a 1.16 ERA, .88 WHIP, 14 HR. TylerR is still in 8th place in the standings but the trajectory has flipped. Yordan Alvarez DTD, Max Muncy DTD, Alejandro Kirk IL, Nick Pivetta IL, Justin Steele 60-day. Active rotation: Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert. Kevin Gausman, Spencer Arrighetti, Logan Henderson, Connelly Early, Ranger Suarez on bench. Andrés Muñoz, Louis Varland, Seranthony Domínguez closing. Casey Schmitt and Carson Benge picked up on waivers.
1BJosh NaylorSEA
2BNico HoernerCHC
3BColson MontgomeryCWS
SSZach NetoLAA
OFByron BuxtonMIN
OFGavin SheetsSD
OFJackson MerrillSD
UtilKyle SchwarberPHI
UtilJuan SotoNYM
BNMatt ChapmanSF
BNRyan O'HearnPIT
ILDrake BaldwinATL
SPMichael WachaKC
SPSpencer MilesTOR
RPAroldis ChapmanBOS
RPPete FairbanksMIA
PGregory SotoPIT
PDrew RasmussenTB
PZebby MatthewsMIN
PAndrew AbbottCIN
BNFreddy PeraltaNYM
BNCristopher SánchezPHI
BNGavin WilliamsCLE
BNShane BazBAL
ILEdward CabreraCHC
ILMax FriedNYY
SPMerrill KellyAZ
SPLuis SeverinoATH
CDillon DinglerDET
1BFreddie FreemanLAD
2BXavier EdwardsMIA
3BCasey SchmittSF
SSBobby Witt Jr.KC
OFOneil CruzPIT
OFBryan ReynoldsPIT
OFIan HappCHC
UtilYordan AlvarezHOU
UtilRafael DeversSF
BNChristian WalkerHOU
BNMax MuncyLAD
ILAlejandro KirkTOR
SPBryce MillerSEA
SPRanger SuarezBOS
RPAndrés MuñozSEA
RPLouis VarlandTOR
PSeranthony DomínguezCWS
PTanner BibeeCLE
PSean BurkeCWS
BNLogan GilbertSEA
BNSpencer ArrighettiHOU
BNKevin GausmanTOR
BNConnelly EarlyBOS
ILNick PivettaSD
ILLogan HendersonMIL
SPChristian ScottNYM
RPBryan KingHOUGenerated May 25 at 12:30 AM Pacific. Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulations per matchup.
| Matchup | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBT vs Buckner | Buckner 6–4 | Buckner 7–2 | ✓ Right team |
| Sonny vs Rain City | Sonny 6–4 | Sonny 7–1 | ✓ Right team |
| Nick vs Ete | Ete 6–4 | Nick 8–1 | ✗ Badly missed |
| Romance vs Busch | Busch 6–4 | Busch 7–2 | ✓ Right team |
| Keanu vs Allahu | Keanu 6–4 | Allahu 8–1 | ✗ Badly missed |
3–2 on the week. Three right-team calls and two implosions. The Keanu–Allahu line was the worst miss of the season: sim gave Keanu a 52% edge and the result was 1–8 in the other direction. Nick over Ete by 8–1 also flipped a 75% Ete favor.
Over: Allahu Alvarez ran the entire offensive top of the leaderboard. The Buckner Boots posted 15 HR and 42 RBI behind Yandy Díaz, CJ Abrams, and Gunnar Henderson, the second-cleanest power week. Nick-fil-A’s rotation worked a 2.41 ERA / 1.02 WHIP slate. Busch Latte ran the .363 OBP and 3.26 ERA against Romance for a clean 7–2 win that did not require any star turn.
Under: Keanu Reeves got a full-team faceplant. The sim made Duke Joe a 52% favorite and the result was 1–8. Ete Crow lost RBI to Nick (30 to 31), OBP (.311 to .370), ERA (3.41 to 2.41), and basically everything except R. Rain City Bombers got Sonny’d 7–1 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Romance Explosion was beaten in every offensive cat except HR and RBI.
Allahu Alvarez keeps building from the bottom of the roster. TylerR has now posted back-to-back weekly all-play titles (8–0–1 in Week 9, 8–0–1 in Week 10) from a roster that opened the season in the cellar. The recipe is the same every week: keep the offense full of bats that walk and slug, churn the bench between Yordan, the Toronto core, and whoever Tanner Bibee is striking out next. Honorable mention: Mario at Nick-fil-A managed Tyler Glasnow’s 15-day IL stint and Hunter Greene’s 60-day IL without losing any rotation work, then ran the league-best ERA and WHIP for the week.
| # | Team | Owner | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | It’s Always Sonny | TylerV | 52 | 28 | 10 |
| 2 | Keanu Reeves | Duke Joe | 53 | 34 | 3 |
| 3 | One Ball Two Strikes | Garth W | 51 | 36 | 3 |
| 4 | Nick-fil-A | Mario | 46 | 35 | 9 |
| 5 | The Buckner Boots | Michael | 39 | 43 | 8 |
| 6 | Rain City Bombers | Taylor | 40 | 47 | 3 |
| 7 | Ete Crow | Jace Allison | 38 | 45 | 7 |
| 8 | Allahu Alvarez | TylerR | 34 | 50 | 6 |
| 9 | Romance Explosion | Michael | 33 | 50 | 7 |
| 10 | Busch Latte | Rose | 33 | 51 | 6 |