5 Matchups H2H Categories
The Allahu Alvarez heater meets the soft side of the bracket. TylerR has the two best weekly all-play lines of the season back-to-back (8–0–1 in Weeks 9 and 10) and now draws Romance Explosion, a roster bleeding production to the IL with Cease, Crochet, Altuve, and Teoscar Hernández all out. The sim gives Allahu 75% and the closer slot is a 88% Allahu lock. Standings still say 8th but the all-play table says this is the best roster in the league right now.
Sonny vs OBT for the soul of the top half. Sonny just took the #1 standings spot, lead the league in cumulative cat wins, and the sim gives them 84% over a Garth W roster that has Skubal, Mize, and Jansen on the 15-day IL all at once. The cat table is a 10–0 sweep on paper. Garth holds 3rd in the standings on the back of a 4–9 H2H record that has every other manager confused. This is the week that explains it one way or the other.
Keanu vs Rain is the only true coin flip on the slate. 51% sim, 5.0–5.0 expected, six categories under 60%. Keanu’s closer corps (Chapman, Fairbanks, Soto) is the league’s most balanced and locks SV at 73%. Rain’s rotation depth with Skenes, Wheeler, Imanaga, and Lodolo grabs QS at 62%. Whoever wins R and ERA wins the matchup. After Keanu’s 1–8 collapse against Allahu, this is the bounce-back test.
Buckner vs Ete is a depth check. Both teams have IL situations: Buckner without Murakami and Seager, Ete without Hader, Pérez, Ober, Boyd, Moniak. Buckner has more healthy bench arms (Taj Bradley, Logan Webb, Chris Sale all on bench without IL tags) and a more productive lineup top-to-bottom. Sim says 76% Buckner. The Ete lineup with Vlad and Salvy can hit HR and the Ete bullpen can keep WHIP clean, but the rest of the cats are Buckner’s.
Nick’s SV problem is a structural problem. The sim gave Nick a 93% loss in the SV cat against Busch, which is the largest single-cat probability gap on the slate. Mason Miller is the only closer and his usage is unpredictable. Busch’s Paul Sewald is the only closer on the other side but the depth of saves on Nick’s opponents (almost every team has 2–3 closers) is starting to add up. Until Mario adds a second arm to the bullpen, the SV cat is going to be a weekly loss.
One Ball Two Strikes
It’s Always Sonny
OBT comes in off the 2–7 loss to Buckner and is sitting in 3rd at 51–36–3. Garth’s rotation is now thin: Skubal still 15-day IL, Casey Mize 15-day IL, Kenley Jansen 15-day IL. Yamamoto, Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, and Keider Montero are the active arms with Yesavage, Rodón, Eovaldi, and Chase Burns on the bench as cover. The lineup behind José Ramírez, Matt Olson, and Riley Greene still produces but is no longer the strength.
Sonny is the cumulative cat-wins leader and now 1st in standings at 52–28–10 after the 7–1 over Rain. Cal Raleigh and Wyatt Langford both still IL, Cole Ragans and Brandon Woodruff still IL, but Shohei Ohtani is active as a pitcher and the rotation behind Cam Schlittler, Michael King, Braxton Ashcraft, Landen Roupp, and Emmet Sheehan is six deep. The lineup with Judge, Tatis, Trea Turner, Austin Riley, and Nick Kurtz is one of the best in the league when whole.
CShea LangeliersATH
1BMatt OlsonATL
2BOtto LopezMIA
3BJosé RamírezCLE
SSJeremy PeñaHOU
OFJarren DuranBOS
OFJordan WalkerSTL
OFRiley GreeneDET
UtilGeraldo PerdomoAZ
UtilWillson ContrerasBOS
BNTaylor WardBAL
BNBo BichetteNYM
SPYoshinobu YamamotoLAD
SPSandy AlcantaraMIA
RPDavid BednarNYY
RPTrevor MegillMIL
PKyle FinneganDET
PAaron NolaPHI
BNMerrill KellyAZ
BNTrey YesavageTOR
BNCarlos RodónNYY
BNChase BurnsCIN
BNNathan EovaldiTEX
ILCasey MizeDET
ILKenley JansenDET
ILTarik SkubalDET
NAKade AndersonNASEA
SP,RPKeider MonteroDET
CSamuel BasalloBAL
1BNick KurtzATH
2BFernando Tatis Jr.SD
3BAustin RileyATL
SSTrea TurnerPHI
OFJackson ChourioMIL
OFAndy PagesLAD
OFWyatt LangfordTEX
UtilKevin McGonigleDET
UtilWilly AdamesSF
BNCal RaleighSEA
ILAaron JudgeNYY
NAKaelen CulpepperNAMIN
1B,2B,OFSpencer SteerCIN
SPShohei Ohtani (Pitcher)LAD
SPCam SchlittlerNYY
RPJhoan DuranPHI
RPRiley O'BrienSTL
PBraxton AshcraftPIT
PMichael KingSD
PSonny GrayBOS
PEmmet SheehanLAD
BNLanden RouppSF
BNRyne NelsonAZ
BNJared JonesPIT
BNDustin MaySTL
ILCole RagansKC
ILBrandon WoodruffMIL
Nick-fil-A
Busch Latte
Nick comes in off the 8–1 wipeout of Ete with a league-best 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Mario sits 4th at 46–35–9. The rotation is still tight: Hunter Greene 60-day IL, Tyler Glasnow 15-day IL, Ryan Helsley 15-day IL. Active arms behind Robbie Ray, Andrew Painter, and Jacob Latz with Seth Lugo, Bryan Woo, Gerrit Cole, and Eduardo Rodriguez all on the bench. The lineup with James Wood, Acuña, Caminero, and Pasquantino is solid but the SV cat is the obvious weakness (Mason Miller alone).
Busch is 10th in standings at 33–51–6 but just took a 7–2 over Romance and ran a .363 OBP, 3.26 ERA week. Hunter Brown still 60-day IL, Edwin Díaz 60-day IL, Kris Bubic 15-day IL. The rotation behind George Kirby, Misiorowski, Senzatela, Strider, and Imai is one of the deepest in the league. The lineup with Ohtani-bat, William Contreras, Aranda, Jazz, Carroll, Arozarena, and Suzuki has been the league’s most patient (.402 OBP in Week 9, .363 last week). Paul Sewald is the only healthy closer.
CHunter GoodmanCOL
1BVinnie PasquantinoKC
2BBrice TurangMIL
3BJunior CamineroTB
SSColt EmersonSEA
OFJames WoodWSH
OFRonald Acuña Jr.ATL
OFJorge MateoATL
UtilCurtis MeadWSH
UtilJoc PedersonTEX
BNKonnor GriffinPIT
SPMichael McGreevySTL
SPGriffin JaxTB
RPMason MillerSD
RPRico GarciaBAL
PJacob LatzTEX
PNoah CameronKC
BNEduardo RodriguezAZ
BNRobbie RaySF
BNBryan WooSEA
BNJustin WrobleskiLAD
BNGerrit ColeNYY
BNDavis MartinCWS
ILHunter GreeneCIN
ILTyler GlasnowLAD
ILRyan HelsleyBAL
SPJack LeiterTEX
RPTy MaddenDET
CWilliam ContrerasMIL
1BJonathan ArandaTB
2BJazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
3BSal StewartCIN
SSJJ WetherholtSTL
OFCorbin CarrollAZ
OFRandy ArozarenaSEA
OFSeiya SuzukiCHC
UtilShohei Ohtani (Batter)LAD
UtilMichael BuschCHC
BNLuke KeaschallMIN
BNGeorge SpringerTOR
SPGeorge KirbySEA
RPPaul SewaldAZ
RPAntonio SenzatelaCOL
PJosé SorianoLAA
BNJacob MisiorowskiMIL
BNTatsuya ImaiHOU
BNKyle HarrisonMIL
BNSpencer StriderATL
BNRyan WeathersNYY
BNWalbert UreñaLAA
BNTroy MeltonDET
ILHunter BrownHOU
ILEdwin DíazLAD
ILKris BubicKC
Allahu Alvarez
Romance is 9th in standings at 33–50–7 and 1–7–1 in all-play last week. Michael 1’s rotation is gutted: Dylan Cease 15-day IL, Garrett Crochet 15-day IL, Jose Altuve 10-day IL, Teoscar Hernández 10-day IL, Angel Martínez DTD. Active arms are Reid Detmers, J.T. Ginn, and Grant Holmes with MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Bradish, Will Warren, and Michael Soroka on the bench. The lineup is still potent (Bryce Harper, Julio, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Eugenio Suárez) but the SV cat is dead (Lucas Erceg and Robert Suarez).
Allahu is the back-to-back weekly champ and now 8th in standings at 34–50–6. TylerR is running the hottest roster in the league: 63 cat wins last week, 53 the week before. The rotation behind Bryce Miller, Ranger Suarez, and Tanner Bibee with Logan Gilbert, Kevin Gausman, Spencer Arrighetti, and Connelly Early on the bench is deeper than the active count suggests. Bullpen with Muñoz, Varland, and Domínguez is the league’s best after this week’s historic run. Yordan Alvarez parked on bench but produces every time he’s in the lineup.
CBen RiceNYY
1BBryce HarperPHI
2BAngel MartínezCLE
3BEugenio SuárezCIN
SSMookie BettsLAD
OFJulio RodríguezSEA
OFBrent RookerATH
OFChandler SimpsonDTDTB
UtilPete AlonsoBAL
UtilDansby SwansonCHC
BNNolan ArenadoAZ
BNJose AltuveHOU
ILTeoscar HernándezLAD
SPJ.T. GinnATH
SPMacKenzie GoreTEX
RPLucas ErcegKC
RPRobert SuarezATL
PGrant HolmesATL
BNReid DetmersLAA
BNKai-Wei TengHOU
BNMichael SorokaAZ
BNRandy VásquezSD
BNKyle BradishBAL
BNWill WarrenNYY
ILDylan CeaseTOR
ILGarrett CrochetBOS
CDillon DinglerDET
1BFreddie FreemanLAD
2BXavier EdwardsMIA
3BCasey SchmittSF
SSBobby Witt Jr.DTDKC
OFOneil CruzPIT
OFBryan ReynoldsPIT
OFYordan AlvarezHOU
UtilChristian WalkerHOU
UtilIan HappCHC
BNMax MuncyLAD
BNRafael DeversSF
ILAlejandro KirkTOR
SPKevin GausmanTOR
SPRanger SuarezBOS
RPAndrés MuñozSEA
RPLouis VarlandTOR
PSeranthony DomínguezCWS
PTanner BibeeCLE
PLuis CastilloSEA
BNConnelly EarlyBOS
BNBryce MillerSEA
BNSpencer ArrighettiHOU
BNLogan GilbertSEA
ILNick PivettaSD
ILLogan HendersonMIL
RPClayton BeeterWSH
SPChristian ScottNYM
SPSeth LugoKC
Keanu Reeves
Rain City Bombers
Keanu just got blown out 1–8 by Allahu but is still 2nd in standings at 53–34–3. The rotation took hits: Max Fried 15-day IL, Edward Cabrera 15-day IL, Luis Severino 15-day IL. Active arms Michael Wacha, Spencer Miles, Drew Rasmussen, Zebby Matthews, and Andrew Abbott with Freddy Peralta, Cristopher Sánchez, Gavin Williams, and Shane Baz on the bench. Closer corps with Aroldis Chapman, Pete Fairbanks, and Gregory Soto is healthy and dangerous. The lineup with Soto, Schwarber, Buxton, Naylor, and Hoerner can hit, but needs the bats to wake up after the Week 10 collapse.
Rain City sits 6th at 40–47–3 and just got dumped 1–7 by Sonny. The IL sheet is the story: Francisco Lindor 10-day IL, Roman Anthony 10-day IL, Blake Snell 60-day IL, Maikel Garcia DTD. The rotation behind Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler, Shota Imanaga, Nick Martinez, Max Meyer, and Nick Lodolo is six healthy starters. Cade Smith and Abner Uribe in the bullpen. The lineup with Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Yelich, and Soderstrom can hit when the IL clears.
1BRyan O'HearnPIT
2BNico HoernerCHC
3BMatt ChapmanSF
SSColson MontgomeryCWS
OFByron BuxtonDTDMIN
OFJackson MerrillSD
OFKyle SchwarberPHI
UtilJuan SotoNYM
UtilZach NetoLAA
BNGavin SheetsSD
BNJosh NaylorSEA
ILDrake BaldwinATL
SPFreddy PeraltaNYM
SPDrew RasmussenTB
RPAroldis ChapmanBOS
RPPete FairbanksMIA
PGregory SotoPIT
PMichael WachaKC
PZebby MatthewsMIN
PJameson TaillonDTDCHC
BNEdward CabreraCHC
BNAndrew AbbottCIN
BNGavin WilliamsCLE
BNCristopher SánchezPHI
ILMax FriedNYY
SPShane BazBAL
SPGrayson RodriguezLAA
SP,RPColin ReaCHC
SPColeman CrowMIL
CLiam HicksMIA
1BMiguel VargasCWS
2BNasim NuñezWSH
3BManny MachadoSD
SSJosé CaballeroNYY
OFTyler SoderstromATH
OFChristian YelichMIL
OFMike TroutLAA
UtilIvan HerreraSTL
UtilMichael Harris IIDTDATL
BNMaikel GarciaKC
BNWill SmithDTDLAD
ILFrancisco LindorNYM
ILRoman AnthonyBOS
SPPaul SkenesPIT
SPJacob deGromTEX
RPCade SmithCLE
RPAbner UribeMIL
PNick MartinezTB
PShota ImanagaCHC
PNick LodoloCIN
PBryce ElderATL
BNZack WheelerPHI
BNStephen KolekNAKC
BNMax MeyerMIA
ILBlake SnellLAD
Ete Crow
The Buckner Boots
Ete is 7th at 38–45–7 and just got obliterated 1–8 by Nick. Two straight weeks at the bottom of the all-play board. Eury Pérez 15-day IL, Bailey Ober 15-day IL, Matthew Boyd 15-day IL, Josh Hader 60-day IL, Mickey Moniak 10-day IL, Elly De La Cruz DTD. The rotation behind Joe Ryan, Jesús Luzardo, Nolan McLean, and Shane McClanahan is workable but thin. The lineup with Vlad Jr., Salvy, Albies, Bellinger, and PCA is solid when healthy. Closer crew with Tanner Scott and Raisel Iglesias is the SV outlier in this matchup.
Buckner is now 5th at 39–43–8 after the 7–2 over OBT. Murakami still 10-day IL, Corey Seager still 10-day IL, but the rotation behind Framber Valdez, Zack Littell, Ben Brown, Parker Messick, and Roki Sasaki is five active starters with Taj Bradley, Logan Webb, and Chris Sale on the bench. The lineup with Yandy Díaz, CJ Abrams, Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and Bregman has been the second-most productive in the league two weeks running. Bryan Baker, Daniel Palencia, and Devin Williams give Buckner real save-slot depth.
CSalvador PerezDTDKC
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
2BOzzie AlbiesATL
3BKazuma OkamotoTOR
SSEzequiel DuranTEX
OFPete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
OFCody BellingerNYY
OFRyan WaldschmidtAZ
UtilAlec BurlesonSTL
UtilBrandon LoweDTDPIT
ILElly De La CruzCIN
ILMickey MoniakCOL
SPJoe RyanMIN
SPCade CavalliWSH
RPTanner ScottLAD
RPRaisel IglesiasATL
PNolan McLeanNYM
PBrad KellerPHI
PJosh HaderHOU
PShane McClanahanTB
BNJesús LuzardoPHI
BNKumar RockerTEX
BNEury PérezMIA
BNPayton TolleBOS
ILMatthew BoydCHC
SP,RPDavid SandlinCWS
CAdley RutschmanBAL
1BYandy DíazTB
2BKetel MarteAZ
3BAlex BregmanCHC
SSCJ AbramsWSH
OFKyle TuckerLAD
OFBrandon NimmoTEX
OFJJ BledayCIN
UtilGunnar HendersonBAL
UtilA.J. EwingNYM
BNJake BauersMIL
ILMunetaka MurakamiCWS
ILCorey SeagerTEX
SPGage JumpATH
RPBryan BakerTB
RPDaniel PalenciaCHC
PDevin WilliamsNYM
BNBen BrownCHC
BNFramber ValdezDET
BNParker MessickCLE
BNRoki SasakiLAD
BNChris SaleATL
BNTaj BradleyMIN
BNLogan WebbSF
BNEmerson HancockSEA
SPBrayan BelloNABOSGenerated Jun 01 at 7:20 AM Pacific
| Matchup | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBT vs Sonny | Sonny 7–3 | OBT 6–4 | ✗ Badly missed |
| Nick vs Busch | Busch 6–4 | Nick 8–2 | ✗ Badly missed |
| Romance vs Allahu | Allahu 6–4 | Allahu 10–0 | ✓ Right team |
| Keanu vs Rain City | Keanu 5–5 | Keanu 5–4 | ✓ Right team |
| Ete vs Buckner | Buckner 6–4 | Tie 4–4 | ✗ Missed |
2–3 on the week, and both right-team calls (Allahu, Keanu) undersold the margin or the direction. The worst miss was the league leader: the sim made It’s Always Sonny an 84% favorite and predicted Sonny 7–3, and TylerV went out and lost 4–6 to One Ball Two Strikes. Busch as a 75% favorite getting buried 2–8 by Nick-fil-A was a close second. Two heavy favorites, two faceplants.
Over: Allahu Alvarez ran the offensive leaderboard, topping the league in RBI, SB, and K on the way to a 10–0 sweep. The Buckner Boots posted the best pitching ratios in the league, a 3.01 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, behind a clean Joe Ryan rotation week. One Ball Two Strikes outscored everyone with 41 runs and used it to knock off the standings leader. Nick-fil-A’s 8–2 win came with league-best HR and OBP marks.
Under: Romance Explosion got swept 0–10 and finished dead last in all-play at 0–9 with just 19 cat wins, beaten in every category by the field. Busch Latte ran a respectable 5–4 all-play line and still lost 2–8 because it drew the buzzsaw. It’s Always Sonny, the league’s best record, lost outright as a heavy favorite. Rain City Bombers stayed glued to the bottom of the all-play table at 1–6–2.
Allahu Alvarez turned the waiver wire into a strikeout factory. TylerR spent the week churning the back of the rotation, adding Luis Castillo, Seth Lugo, and Christian Scott off free agency, then led the league in K (68) and rode it to a 10–0 sweep and a league-best 8–0–1 all-play week. It is the same recipe every week now: stream arms, keep the bats deep, win categories in bunches. Honorable mention: Garth W at One Ball Two Strikes grabbed Aaron Nola midweek and promptly beat the standings leader 6–4.
| Rank | Team | Record | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | It’s Always Sonny | 63–35–12 | .627 |
| 2 | Nick-fil-A | 62–38–10 | .609 |
| 3 | Keanu Reeves | 59–46–5 | .559 |
| 4 | One Ball Two Strikes | 59–47–4 | .555 |
| 5 | Allahu Alvarez | 52–51–7 | .505 |
| 6 | The Buckner Boots | 50–49–11 | .505 |
| 7 | Ete Crow | 43–57–10 | .436 |
| 8 | Rain City Bombers | 45–59–6 | .436 |
| 9 | Busch Latte | 42–61–7 | .414 |
| 10 | Romance Explosion | 35–67–8 | .355 |
Generated Jun 08 at 10:11 AM Pacific