Week 16
Jul 6–Jul 12

One Ball rolls in off the only sweep of Week 15, a 10–0 dismantling of Busch, but this is a much stiffer test. José Ramírez (hand) and Jeremy Peña (calf) are both on the IL, which trims the exact power and speed a Yamamoto–Skubal–Yesavage–Mize rotation cannot replace. The sim still nudges Garth’s way at 54 percent on runs, RBI, and both ratios.

Allahu counters with the deeper bullpen, Andrés Muñoz fronting a group that owns a clear saves edge (68 percent). Dansby Swanson, fresh off a 5-homer week, and Yordan Alvarez keep the power categories live even with Oneil Cruz on the IL, and Gilbert, Miller, and Gausman are all healthy behind a day-to-day Ranger Suárez.

The top seed at 81–43–16 is favored in seven categories even with Aaron Judge (ribs) and Wyatt Langford (hamstring) on the IL. The OBP edge is enormous at 71 percent, Jhoan Duran anchors a saves lean, and a rotation of Ohtani, Gray, Schlittler, and Sheehan with Michael King healthy off the bench keeps the strikeouts and ratios humming.

Nick-fil-A brings the two-seed and a lineup that just led the league in runs, homers, and steals, though Ronald Acuña Jr. is on the IL. Mason Miller closes and the rotation stashes Gerrit Cole, Hunter Greene, and Robbie Ray behind the active arms. Nick owns homers, steals, and quality starts on the projection; everything else tilts Sonny.

Romance sits last at 46–85–9 and is down Julio Rodríguez (concussion) and Brent Rooker (knee), which guts an already thin lineup. The path to points is the mound: Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Kyle Bradish, and a healthy MacKenzie Gore give Michael the strikeout lean (59 percent) and keep homers and RBI in reach.

Rain City is a MASH unit, with Mike Trout, Will Smith, Tyler Soderstrom, and Maikel Garcia all on the 10-day IL, and the sim still favors them because the rotation is absurd: Paul Skenes, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Shota Imanaga. Add a 75 percent steals edge from Nasim Nuñez and José Caballero and Taylor takes six categories shorthanded.

Keanu owns the strikeout category outright at 72 percent with Rasmussen, Abbott, Holmes, and a healthy Freddy Peralta and Gavin Williams in reserve, and adds a steals edge. Byron Buxton is day-to-day and Matt Chapman is on the IL, which is why the power and OBP tilt the other way. The model calls it 52–48 for the visitors.

Buckner answers with OBP, both ratios, and a huge saves edge (77 percent) behind Devin Williams, plus a rotation of Chris Sale, Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, and Roki Sasaki that is as deep as anyone’s. Corey Seager (back) and Munetaka Murakami (hamstring) are on the IL, but Bregman, Nimmo, Marte, and Abrams keep the lineup dangerous.

Ete Crow is coming off the second-best week in the league, an 8–1 all-play with a league-high 102 strikeouts, and brings three closers in Tanner Scott, Raisel Iglesias, and Josh Hader. A rotation of Nolan McLean, Joe Ryan, Eury Pérez, and a healthy Jesús Luzardo keeps the strikeout lean alive, but the offense outside Elly De La Cruz and Pete Crow-Armstrong is thin.

Busch is desperate to bury the 0–10 sweep and the sim likes the bounce-back at 57 percent, powered by a massive OBP edge (75 percent) and Shohei Ohtani’s bat. The rotation is deep with Kirby, Hunter Brown, Misiorowski, and Kyle Harrison, though Edwin Díaz (60-day IL) leaves the bullpen leaning on Paul Sewald for saves.