Week 12
Jun 8–Jun 14

One Ball Two Strikes sits #4 and just knocked off the league leader, but the rotation took a hit this week: Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and closer Kenley Jansen are all on the 15-day IL. José Ramírez and Matt Olson keep the offense printing, and the sim still hands Garth the OBP (76%) and R edges, but the pitching is thinner than usual.

Rain City is #8 in the standings yet the model’s 63% favorite here. Taylor’s bats are banged up too, with Francisco Lindor and Roman Anthony on the IL and Michael Harris II and Will Smith day-to-day, but the WHIP edge is enormous (83%) and the ERA, QS, and SV edges are real. Blake Snell stays a 60-day stash.

The league leader limps in missing its two best bats: Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are both on the 10-day IL, with Cole Ragans and Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day. That is exactly why the #1 team in the standings is a Week 12 underdog. Sonny still owns SV (67%) and QS (67%) behind the deepest bullpen in the league, but the lineup is running without its engine.

Ete Crow is #7 and the model’s surprise favorite, holding category edges in seven of ten. Elly De La Cruz is on the 10-day IL and Salvador Perez and Brandon Lowe are day-to-day, but the leans in R, HR, RBI, OBP, K, ERA, and WHIP are genuine even where they are thin. With Judge and Raleigh out, this is Jace’s best shot at a marquee scalp all year.

Nick-fil-A is #2 and built its season on ratios: the sim hands Mario ERA (75%), WHIP (74%), and QS (68%) again. Closer Ryan Helsley is on the 15-day IL, which softens the SV edge, and Tyler Glasnow and Hunter Greene remain long-term 60-day stashes the rotation already works around.

The hottest team in the league rolls in at #5 after a 10–0 sweep and the best all-play week in the field. Bobby Witt Jr. is day-to-day and worth watching, but Yordan Alvarez and the bats give Allahu the R, HR, RBI, and SB edges. The model calls it a near coin flip at 53% Allahu.

Romance Explosion is dead last and just got swept 0–10. The staff is gutted: Garrett Crochet (60-day IL), Dylan Cease (15-day), and Teoscar Hernández (10-day) are all out. The sim gives Michael’s second roster a puncher’s chance in R and RBI and almost nothing else, with SV (6%) a total write-off.

Keanu is #3 and an 86% favorite. Byron Buxton is day-to-day and Max Fried is on the 15-day IL, but Kyle Schwarber and a deep, freshly-streamed rotation (Grayson Rodriguez, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon) make this the most lopsided matchup on the board.

Busch Latte is #9 and coming off an unlucky 2–8 loss despite a 5–4 all-play week. The bullpen is the hole: Edwin Díaz (60-day IL) and Hunter Brown (60-day) are gone, which is why the SV edge sits at just 13%. But Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm give Rose the SB (68%) and OBP (77%) edges.

The Buckner Boots are #6 and just posted the league’s best ERA and WHIP in a 4–4 tie. Munetaka Murakami is on the 10-day IL, but CJ Abrams and a clean Joe Ryan rotation give Michael the HR, RBI, K, QS, and SV edges.