Week 17
Jul 13–Jul 19

Third in the standings and coming off a 7–1 flattening of Allahu, though the 4–4–1 all-play says that was more soft schedule than statement. José Ramírez and Carlos Rodón are on the IL and Bo Bichette is day-to-day, so Garth’s backfilled lineup wins here on ratios and on-base rather than raw power: WHIP (62 percent) and OBP are the safe ground.

Michael’s renamed side is dead last but just led the entire league in homers (16) and RBI (40) in a losing Week 16. Julio Rodríguez and Brent Rooker are IL-stashed and the power still plays, with the sim handing Day Old Rice HR, K, and QS. Over a two-week slate, if the parade of streamed starters holds a decent ERA, this is a live upset.

The runaway top seed at 90–44–16, fresh off a perfect 7–0–2 all-play behind the league’s best ERA (2.07) and WHIP (1.01). Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz are on the IL, which dents the power, but TylerV’s edges here live elsewhere: a 76 percent steals lock and an 83 percent strikeout edge that are close to unloseable.

Michael’s other team quietly posted the league’s best WHIP (0.96) and a 2.25 ERA in a 5–4 Week 16 loss, and the sim actually gives Buckner more category edges than Sonny, five to two. Corey Seager on the IL hurts the on-base and power. The problem is the two categories he simply cannot win, steals and strikeouts, plus three coin flips that keep tipping the top seed’s way.

Second in the standings and 6–3 all-play in Week 16 despite a cruel 5–4 loss with a league-high 56 category wins. Ronald Acuña is back on the IL and closer Ryan Helsley is shelved, which shaves the saves and speed. Mario still owns the power, favored in HR (69 percent) and RBI (65 percent).

Taylor is a middling seed that keeps hanging around, coming off a 6–3 win over Day Old Rice built on a 2.51 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. deGrom is day-to-day and Will Smith is on the IL, but the speed is the story: an 85 percent steals edge plus the better ratios hand Rain City six categories and the nod.

Fourth in the standings but reeling: a 1–9 loss in Week 15 and a lucky 5–4 escape in Week 16 that the 4–4–1 all-play did not love. Byron Buxton, Matt Chapman, and Max Fried are all on the IL, gutting the offense. Duke Joe leads the league in strikeouts, and the sim gives him basically nothing else, pegging K at 77 percent.

Rose sits ninth, but the roster plays better than that, and Week 16’s 6–3 loss to Ete masked a 6–2–1 all-play. With Keanu’s lineup thinned by injuries, Busch is favored in seven categories, everything except strikeouts and a couple of ratio coin flips. Jacob Misiorowski being day-to-day is the only real wrinkle.

The hottest team in the league. Jace turned Week 16 into an 8–1 all-play and a 6–3 win and climbed from ninth to sixth. The sim loves the two-week slate too, favoring Ete in seven categories behind a deep, balanced offense and a 74 percent strikeout edge.

TylerR is coming off the worst week any team has had all season: an 0–9 all-play with nine category wins and a 7–1 loss to One Ball. Oneil Cruz and Ranger Suarez are on the IL. The only ground the sim gives Allahu is saves (75 percent) and OBP; everything else points the other way.