5 Matchups H2H Categories
The trade ripples are about to be tested. Sonny gave up Trout and Uribe to land Tatis Jr. and Braxton Ashcraft, and now they get The Buckner Boots in a matchup the sim has at 60%. Rain City got Trout and Uribe and immediately drew Nick-fil-A as the favorite. Both teams that swapped headlines are favored this week. The trade was supposed to upgrade both sides. Week 8 says it did.
One Ball Two Strikes catches their first real upset risk in three weeks. Three straight weeks of beating sim favorites and now Garth gets a 36% chance against Hey Holmes! Why? Skubal still IL, Eovaldi DTD, and Hey’s pitching depth (Taillon, Cameron, Gore, Clay Holmes, Dustin May, Dylan Cease) is actually deep when the active slots are full. The lineup edges are basically a coin flip. If Garth wins this 6–4, the unbeaten streak versus the sim hits four.
Ete Crow vs Allahu is the regression rubber match. Ete went 9–0 in Week 6, 2–6–1 in Week 7. Allahu went 7–1–1 in Week 5, 3–3–3 in Week 6, 3–4–2 in Week 7. Both teams have been on bouncing trajectories for a month. Sim says Allahu 68%. SV is the lopsided category (.05 t0 means Allahu wins SV 95% of sims). Jace’s closer hole is going to keep showing up until Tanner Scott is ramped up.
Keanu vs Busch is the coin flip the league has been waiting on. Sim 46% Keanu, expected 4.8–5.2. Keanu just dropped a 97-K performance with 7 QS and 14 HR. Busch responded to a 0–9 disaster with a 6–4 win and league-best SB. Both rosters healthy, both rotations deep. This is the closest sim line of the week and the one most likely to be decided by a single Sunday start.
The Sonny / OBT / Keanu gap is officially open. Top 3 cumulative power rankings, all within 11 cat wins of each other, and now the standings show a tier break. Sonny / OBT / Keanu all sit at or above .56 winning percentage. Nick-fil-A at .580 is the only contender keeping pace. Everyone else is .500 or below. Six weeks from the trade deadline. Three teams are running their own race.
One Ball Two Strikes
Hey Holmes!
OBT comes in off back-to-back upsets of sim favorites: 9–1 over Busch and 8–2 over Allahu. Garth is now the cumulative #1 in cat wins. The rotation is still Yamamoto / Alcantara / Rodón on top with Burns, Yesavage, and Griffin behind, and the lineup is producing R (41 last week) and OBP (.381 last week) at the top of the league. Skubal IL hurts, but only on the K cat ceiling.
Hey Holmes! lost 7–3 to Rain City on a 4.48 ERA week. Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Dansby Swanson, Jose Altuve, and Brent Rooker headline the lineup. Crochet IL is the rotation hole; Jameson Taillon, Noah Cameron, MacKenzie Gore, Clay Holmes, and Dustin May still give Michael five startable arms. Hottest week from this roster is 8–2 over Buckner in Week 5; the floor has been low. Sim sees a 64% Hey win on the pitching depth alone.
CShea LangeliersATH
1BMatt OlsonATL
2BOtto LopezMIA
3BJosé RamírezCLE
SSGeraldo PerdomoAZ
OFJordan WalkerSTL
OFRiley GreeneDET
OFTaylor WardBAL
UtilRyan JeffersMIN
UtilWillson ContrerasBOS
BNJarren DuranBOS
BNBo BichetteNYM
ILJeremy PeñaHOU
SPYoshinobu YamamotoLAD
SPSandy AlcantaraMIA
RPKenley JansenDET
RPDavid BednarNYY
PTrevor MegillMIL
PNathan EovaldiTEX
PJack FlahertyDET
BNCasey MizeDET
BNCarlos RodónNYY
BNTrey YesavageTOR
BNChase BurnsCIN
ILTarik SkubalDET
NAKade AndersonNASEA
SP,RPJanson JunkMIA
SP,RPFoster GriffinWSH
CBen RiceNYY
1BBryce HarperPHI
2BJose AltuveNAHOU
3BNolan ArenadoAZ
SSMookie BettsLAD
OFJulio RodríguezSEA
OFBrent RookerATH
OFChandler SimpsonTB
UtilTeoscar HernándezLAD
UtilPete AlonsoBAL
BNKyle StowersMIA
BNDansby SwansonCHC
ILEugenio SuárezCIN
2B,3B,SS,OFMauricio DubónATL
SPMichael SorokaAZ
RPLucas ErcegKC
RPRobert SuarezATL
BNMacKenzie GoreTEX
BNWill WarrenNYY
BNJoey CantilloCLE
BNRandy VásquezSD
BNDustin MaySTL
BNDylan CeaseTOR
BNKyle BradishBAL
ILClay HolmesNYM
ILGarrett CrochetBOS
RPJeff HoffmanTOR
It’s Always Sonny
The Buckner Boots
Sonny just delivered a 7–0–2 all-play week with league-best ERA (2.29) and WHIP (1.03). Judge, Trea Turner, Riley, McGonigle, and now Tatis Jr. (from the trade) carry the lineup. Ragans and Woodruff IL stashes; Ohtani, Schlittler, King, and Roupp anchor active. Ashcraft also came over and immediately joins a deep rotation. The 5–4 win over Nick-fil-A was the closer matchup the team has played this year.
Buckner has gone 1–6–2, then 0–9 in two straight weeks. Logan Webb still IL, Framber Valdez still suspended, Taj Bradley still IL. Three startable SPs (Parker Messick, Chris Sale, Emerson Hancock) with Noah Schultz and Trevor Rogers waiting. Tucker, Bregman, CJ Abrams, and Jasson Domínguez are still the lineup spine. The 5 SV last week kept Michael from a 1–9. The sim still sees enough talent to hand them OBP and SV.
CMoisés BallesterosCHC
1BNick KurtzATH
2BFernando Tatis Jr.SD
3BAustin RileyATL
SSTrea TurnerPHI
OFAaron JudgeNYY
OFAndy PagesLAD
OFMickey MoniakCOL
UtilKevin McGonigleDET
UtilWilyer AbreuBOS
BNCal RaleighSEA
ILWyatt LangfordTEX
NACharlie CondonNACOL
2B,3B,SS,OFBrendan DonovanSEA
SPShohei Ohtani (Pitcher)LAD
SPCam SchlittlerNYY
RPJhoan DuranPHI
RPRiley O'BrienSTL
PMichael KingSD
PSonny GrayBOS
PBraxton AshcraftPIT
PPeter LambertHOU
BNLanden RouppSF
BNEmmet SheehanLAD
BNMitch KellerPIT
BNShane McClanahanTB
ILCole RagansKC
ILBrandon WoodruffMIL
CAdley RutschmanBAL
1BYandy DíazTB
2BA.J. EwingNYM
3BMunetaka MurakamiCWS
SSGunnar HendersonBAL
OFKyle TuckerLAD
OFBrandon NimmoTEX
OFJJ BledayCIN
UtilCJ AbramsWSH
UtilAlex BregmanCHC
BNKetel MarteAZ
BNCorey SeagerDTDTEX
OFSteven KwanCLE
SPChris SaleATL
SPRoki SasakiLAD
RPDevin WilliamsNYM
RPBryan BakerTB
PDaniel PalenciaCHC
PTrevor RogersBAL
BNEmerson HancockSEA
BNFramber ValdezDET
BNNoah SchultzCWS
BNParker MessickCLE
BNBen BrownCHC
ILTaj BradleyMIN
ILLogan WebbSF
ILCaleb ThielbarCHC
SP,RPTrevor McDonaldSF
Nick-fil-A
Rain City Bombers
Nick-fil-A lost 5–4 to Sonny but posted a league-leading 93 K week and 6 QS. Mario’s lineup (Caminero, Wood, Caglianone, Goodman) was second in HR. Cole, Glasnow, and Helsley remain IL; Bubba Chandler, Davis Martin, Wrobleski, and Eduardo Rodriguez carry the rotation. The H2H loss did not match the all-play (6–3); roster strength is still real.
Rain City just landed Mike Trout and Abner Uribe in the only trade of the season, then went 7–3 over Hey Holmes! Skenes, deGrom, Imanaga, Nick Martinez, and Bryce Elder is a five-deep active rotation with Wheeler / Lugo / Lodolo / Meyer on bench. Lindor, Yelich, Roman Anthony, and Correa all on the IL means the lineup is leaning hard on the trade pickup. Sim now gives Rain City 66% on the pitching depth.
CHunter GoodmanCOL
1BVinnie PasquantinoKC
2BBrice TurangMIL
3BJunior CamineroTB
SSKonnor GriffinPIT
OFJames WoodWSH
OFChase DeLauterCLE
OFDaylen LileWSH
UtilCole YoungSEA
UtilBrayan RocchioCLE
BNRonald Acuña Jr.ATL
NAColt EmersonSEA
2B,OFAngel MartínezCLE
1B,OFJac CaglianoneKC
RPMason MillerSD
RPRico GarciaBAL
PJacob LatzTEX
BNEduardo RodriguezAZ
BNJustin WrobleskiLAD
BNDavis MartinCWS
BNBlake SnellLAD
BNMichael McGreevySTL
BNReid DetmersLAA
BNRobbie RaySF
BNBryan WooSEA
ILTyler GlasnowLAD
ILRyan HelsleyBAL
ILGerrit ColeNYY
SP,RPMike BurrowsHOU
SPTyler MahleSF
SPChris BassittBAL
CLiam HicksMIA
1BMiguel VargasCWS
2BMaikel GarciaKC
3BManny MachadoSD
SSNasim NuñezWSH
OFTyler SoderstromATH
OFMike TroutLAA
OFMichael Harris IIATL
UtilIvan HerreraSTL
UtilJorge SolerLAA
BNChristian YelichMIL
BNWill SmithLAD
ILJosé CaballeroNYY
ILFrancisco LindorNYM
ILRoman AnthonyBOS
SPPaul SkenesPIT
SPJacob deGromTEX
RPCade SmithCLE
RPAbner UribeMIL
PDennis SantanaPIT
PMax MeyerMIA
PNick MartinezTB
PZack WheelerPHI
BNBryce ElderATL
BNShota ImanagaCHC
BNNick LodoloCIN
Keanu Reeves
Busch Latte
Keanu came back hard with an 8–2 win over Buckner: league-best K (97), HR (14), QS (7), and RBI (35). The rotation that imploded in Week 6 (Sánchez, Abbott, Williams) reset hard with Max Fried, Freddy Peralta, and Edward Cabrera on bench. Robert Jr. is still IL but Schwarber, Crow-Armstrong, Drake Baldwin, and Buxton are carrying the lineup. Duke Joe’s back in the contender tier.
Busch went 6–4 over Ete Crow on the strength of a 10 SB week, .348 OBP, and 4 QS from Kirby / Soriano / Bubic. The lineup (Suzuki, Bogaerts, Sal Stewart, Jazz Chisholm, Michael Busch, Luke Keaschall) is healthy. The rotation has six startable arms with Imai, Brown, and Bryce Miller all on IL. Sewald and De Los Santos are the only closers. Sim sees a true coin flip.
CDrake BaldwinATL
1BJosh NaylorSEA
2BNico HoernerCHC
3BMatt ChapmanSF
SSZach NetoLAA
OFKyle SchwarberPHI
OFJuan SotoNYM
OFJackson MerrillSD
UtilColson MontgomeryCWS
UtilRyan O'HearnPIT
BNByron BuxtonDTDMIN
ILLuis Robert Jr.NYM
SPGavin WilliamsCLE
SPFreddy PeraltaNYM
RPAroldis ChapmanBOS
RPPete FairbanksMIA
PLuis SeverinoATH
PGregory SotoPIT
PJameson TaillonCHC
PDrew RasmussenTB
BNAndrew AbbottCIN
BNCristopher SánchezPHI
BNEdward CabreraCHC
BNMichael WachaKC
ILMax FriedNYY
RPTyler PhillipsMIA
CWilliam ContrerasMIL
1BJonathan ArandaTB
2BJazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
3BSal StewartCIN
SSJJ WetherholtSTL
OFCorbin CarrollAZ
OFRandy ArozarenaSEA
OFLuke RaleySEA
UtilShohei Ohtani (Batter)LAD
UtilMichael BuschCHC
BNSeiya SuzukiCHC
BNLuke KeaschallMIN
BNGeorge SpringerTOR
SSXander BogaertsSD
SPGeorge KirbySEA
RPPaul SewaldAZ
RPAntonio SenzatelaCOL
BNJosé SorianoLAA
BNSpencer StriderATL
BNKris BubicKC
BNKyle HarrisonMIL
BNJacob MisiorowskiMIL
BNTatsuya ImaiHOU
BNRyan WeathersNYY
ILHunter BrownHOU
ILEdwin DíazLAD
SPBraxton GarrettMIA
SP,RPAaron CivaleATH
RPTony SantillanCIN
Ete Crow
Allahu Alvarez
Ete Crow regressed from a 9–0 all-play sweep to a 4–6 loss to Busch in one week. The 61 cat wins dropped to 36. Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Chase Dollander, Luzardo, and Payton Tolle make up the rotation; Nolan McLean, Bailey Ober, and Eury Pérez on bench. Boyd IL, Hader 60-day. The closer slot is the lingering problem (Tanner Scott is the only realistic SV bet).
Allahu lost 8–2 to OBT but the all-play (3–4–2) said the roster played a near-.500 week. League-leading 10 HR. The lineup (Walker, Yordan, Muncy, Witt Jr., Happ, Freeman) is healthy except for Kirk (IL). Muñoz / Domínguez / Varland is the league’s deepest closer group. With Pivetta and Steele on long IL, the rotation is Gilbert + Henderson + Jack Perkins on top of a deep bench of Bibee / Suarez / Gausman / Scott.
CSalvador PerezKC
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR
2BOzzie AlbiesATL
3BKazuma OkamotoTOR
SSElly De La CruzCIN
OFPete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
OFCody BellingerNYY
OFAlec BurlesonSTL
UtilBrandon LowePIT
UtilJackson ChourioMIL
BNRamón LaureanoSD
SPJoe RyanMIN
SPBailey OberMIN
RPTanner ScottLAD
RPRaisel IglesiasATL
PJesús LuzardoPHI
PPayton TolleBOS
PBrad KellerPHI
PEury PérezMIA
BNNolan McLeanNYM
ILMatthew BoydCHC
ILJosh HaderHOU
SP,RPChase DollanderCOL
CDillon DinglerDET
1BChristian WalkerHOU
2BXavier EdwardsMIA
3BMax MuncyLAD
SSBobby Witt Jr.KC
OFYordan AlvarezHOU
OFOneil CruzPIT
OFHenry BolteATH
UtilIan HappCHC
UtilBryan ReynoldsPIT
BNFreddie FreemanLAD
BNRafael DeversSF
ILAlejandro KirkTOR
1BJonathan ArandaTB
SPKevin GausmanTOR
RPAndrés MuñozSEA
RPLouis VarlandTOR
PSeranthony DomínguezCWS
BNLogan GilbertSEA
BNLogan HendersonMIL
BNConnelly EarlyBOS
BNSpencer ArrighettiHOU
BNTanner BibeeCLE
BNRanger SuarezBOS
BNBryce MillerSEA
ILNick PivettaSD
ILJustin SteeleCHC
RPPierce JohnsonCIN
SPChristian ScottNYM
SP,RPKeider MonteroDETGenerated May 12 at 5:39 PM Pacific
| Matchup | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OBT vs Hey | Hey 6–4 | Hey 7–2 | ✓ Right team |
| Sonny vs Buckner | It’s Always Sonny 6–4 | Sonny 5–2 | ✗ Badly missed |
| Nick vs Rain City | Rain City 6–4 | TIE 5–5 | ✗ Missed |
| Keanu vs Busch | Busch 5–4 | Keanu 7–3 | ✗ Badly missed |
| Ete vs Allahu | Allahu 6–4 | Allahu 5–4 | ✓ Right team |
2–1–2 on the week: two right-team calls, one tie the sim never priced in, and the headline miss of the season. Keanu 7–3 over Busch wasn’t even close to the 5–4 Busch prediction, and OBT 2–7 was the third consecutive Garth game the sim got upside down (this time the opposite direction). The model was 19% on the OBT-Hey matchup last week and finally collected. The bigger miss: Keanu was 46% to win and dropped 16 HR on Busch.
Over: Kyle Schwarber (4 HR / 9 RBI for Keanu) and Nick Kurtz (3 HR / 9 RBI for Sonny) both crushed their Steamer baselines. Bobby Witt Jr. (Allahu) finally had a complete week: 2 HR / 4 RBI / 3 R / 1 SB. Angel Martínez was the sole functioning bat on Nick-fil-A: 3 HR / 5 RBI / 7 R / 3 SB on a 0–8–1 all-play roster. Drake Baldwin and Colson Montgomery each chipped in 3 HR / 3-4 RBI for Keanu and made the difference in the 16-HR cat lead.
Under: Mike Trout went 0–0–0–0 in his first full Rain City week after the trade. Ozzie Albies went 0–0–0–0 for Ete Crow. Matt Olson (0 HR for OBT). Aaron Judge (0 HR / 0 RBI for Sonny, only 3 R). Pete Alonso (0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 R for Hey). The team that won the matchup despite Pete Alonso doing nothing is a real story. Jackson Merrill (Keanu) also had a 0-stat week and the team still scored 16 HR.
Hey Holmes! adding Nolan Arenado from waivers on May 13. Michael was sitting in 10th place after a 3–7 loss to Rain City. He dropped Mauricio Dubón (who at least had a 1 HR / 2 RBI week with Hey) for Arenado, then went on to post the best all-play week in the league. Arenado hit at the lineup’s most ineffective spot and added depth at 3B behind Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, and Jose Altuve. The team that has rolled 1–8, 2–6–1, 0–9, 3–5–1, 3–4–2, and 1–8 in all-play across the first seven weeks just went 8–1. Sometimes the right \$0 pickup is the difference between 10th and weekly champ. Honorable mention: Rain City picking up Nasim Nuñez (19 SB on the season) for what looks like long-term SB cat insurance.
| # | Team | Owner | W | L | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | It’s Always Sonny | TylerV | 48 | 23 | 9 |
| 2 | Keanu Reeves | Duke Joe | 48 | 30 | 2 |
| 3 | One Ball Two Strikes | Garth W | 45 | 33 | 2 |
| 4 | Nick-fil-A | Mario | 42 | 30 | 8 |
| 5 | The Buckner Boots | Michael | 34 | 38 | 8 |
| 6 | Rain City Bombers | Taylor | 35 | 42 | 3 |
| 7 | Ete Crow | Jace Allison | 34 | 41 | 5 |
| 8 | Hey Holmes! | Michael | 30 | 45 | 5 |
| 9 | Busch Latte | Rose | 29 | 46 | 5 |
| 10 | Allahu Alvarez | TylerR | 29 | 46 | 5 |
Generated May 18 · Stats from Yahoo Fantasy API end-of-week totals