Week 3
Apr 6–Apr 12

Garth is 0-2 in the last two weeks and sitting #5 in power rankings. The sim sees a coin flip anyway: 52.4% for One Ball against the last-place team. The edge is entirely in pitching rate stats — ERA (59%), WHIP (58%), K (68%), and SV (71%) all favor One Ball. The offense hasn't done anything to earn confidence lately but the saves and strikeouts are real.

Rain City just went 1-9 against Keanu and now has the most losses in the league. But the sim doesn't care about records — it sees R (57%), HR (63%), SB (80%), and QS (54%) all in Rain City's favor. Taylor has legitimate offensive weapons. The question Week 3 answers is whether the rotation can stop bleeding long enough to win the pitching categories they need, or whether the offense hauls five categories and the arms give back four.

TylerV just won back-to-back weeks and sits 11-7-2 head-to-head despite being #8 in cumulative power rankings. The pitching is what keeps him afloat: ERA (56%) and WHIP (53%) both lean Ragans, and OBP is the standout at 76%. The sim says coin flip. The category table does not.

Jace owns the 2025 championship and is currently 4-13-3. He wins two categories with conviction: SB at 87% with one of the fastest lineups in the league, and K at 71% with a deep rotation. Those two categories are almost guaranteed. Everything else leans Ragans. If Ete steals a third category from the thin edges, this gets interesting. The sim doesn’t expect it.

Mario is #3 in the cumulative power rankings. He has won five of his last nine categories against real teams. The sim gives him 18% this week. Every single category in the table favors Allahu, including saves at 80%. The specific matchup this week — TylerR’s lineup against whatever Mario puts on the mound — is a historically bad draw for the power ranking. This happens to every team eventually.

TylerR is #6 in power rankings and just had his best week of the season — 5-3 over GVO in Week 2. The lineup is the best in this matchup by a significant margin and the bullpen takes SV at 80%. Bibee, Gilbert, and Pivetta supply the strikeouts. Every category in the table goes to Allahu. Ray steals three through variance. The other seven belong to TylerR.

GVO is #7 in power rankings with a 5-12-3 all-play record. The rotation is intact despite four arms on IL and that’s why ERA (54%) and WHIP (57%) and SV (58%) all tilt GVO’s way. Those three plus RBI and OBP are the five categories Michael can win. Every single one is between 52% and 58%. Coin flips. Against the #1 team.

Keanu is 17-3 head-to-head and #1 in power rankings with 127 cumulative cat wins, 22 more than the #2 team. The three dominant edges this week are SB (86%), K (87%), and QS (80%). Those three categories alone represent a 7.4-point expected contribution in any given simulation. GVO wins three categories on the day they get lucky on all their thin edges simultaneously.

Rose is #4 in power rankings and 11-7-2 head-to-head. Three rotation arms are on IL this week and the sim knows it: K is 90% for Buckner, the highest single-category edge in any Week 3 matchup. Busch wins SB at 73% — Chisholm, Arozarena, Wetherholt are a real speed corps. R, HR, and RBI are all 53-54% for Buckner, which makes them coin flips Busch can steal on a good offensive week. That’s the range of outcomes.

Buckner is #2 in power rankings, 14-5-1 head-to-head, and just went 8-1 against Ete in Week 2 with a 1.64 ERA. The rotation quality is what separates these two teams this week. K (90%), QS (74%), and SV (66%) are near-locks. OBP (61%) and the ERA/WHIP categories (55-56%) round out the dominant side. Against a #4 team that has lost three key rotation arms, this is the matchup Buckner wanted.