Head-to-Head Categories 10 Teams 23 Rounds Sun Mar 22, 2026
500 Monte Carlo simulations using category-by-category matchup modeling. Each team rated across all 10 scoring categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS) based on actual 18-starter lineups (10 batters + 8 pitchers including 4 generic P slots) with full Yahoo position eligibility. Pitching ratings reflect realistic weekly usage — each SP gets 1–2 starts per week regardless of lineup slots, so depth provides consistency rather than linear production gains. Weekly variance accounts for injuries, slumps, and waiver moves. Streaming is not modeled (this is a draft-day snapshot). 22 regular season weeks + 3 playoff weeks simulated.
| Seed | Team | Proj. Record | Pct | Playoff% | Champ% |
|---|
The 5-6-7-8 seed race will be chaos. Decoy (58%), The Ragans Administration (49%), Keanu (47%), and Skenes (42%) are all clustered within 2 projected wins of each other. One hot streak or cold stretch decides who makes the playoffs and who watches. Decoy's health risk (Acuña, Glasnow, Cole) makes them the most volatile team in the league.
8 pitching slots change everything. With 2 SP + 2 RP + 4 P starters, pitching depth matters more than ever. But each SP only gets 1–2 starts per week, so filling all 8 slots with quality arms is about consistency, not volume. Vibes (10+ SP), Ete Crow (Ohtani/Ragans/Castillo/Woodruff), and One Ball (Skubal/Yamamoto/Eovaldi/Alcantara/Burns) load every slot with real production. Busch Latte can't — and it shows.
The Ragans Administration's title defense faces a real test. The defending champs (fka LetsPlayMajorLeagueBaseball — yes, someone finally admitted that name was unsustainable) ran back the SB + SV formula, but their SP depth drops off fast after Ryan/Luzardo. With 8 pitching slots to fill and each SP realistically getting 1–2 starts per week, McLean/Gray/Eury Pérez need to step up or ERA/WHIP/QS become weekly liabilities.
Watch the waiver wire. In 2025, the top 4 finishers averaged 85 moves. The bottom 4 averaged 52. The draft is just the opening hand — the teams that work the wire hardest will rise. With 5 max acquisitions per week, there's no excuse not to be active.
The Waiver Wire Wins Championships. In 2025, the top 4 finishers averaged 85 moves. The bottom 4 averaged 52. The Ragans Administration won with 81 moves; Rain City finished 9th with just 17. Good Vibes Only made the most moves (101) and finished 4th despite the 6th-best draft. The lesson is clear: ~30% of your Opening Day roster will be gone by June. Draft for flexibility, not perfection.
The Champion's Blueprint. The Ragans Administration won 2025 by pairing Elly De La Cruz's SB dominance with 3 closers and aggressive waiver activity. In 2026, they doubled down — drafting Elly again at pick 4, loading up on 3 closers (Iglesias, Estévez, Hader), and adding the same Joe Ryan and Luzardo they rode in 2025. This is a team that knows its identity.
One Ball's Model Season. Picked 8th in 2025 (same slot as Buckner Boots in 2026). Took Elly De La Cruz, paired with Mookie Betts and Devers, and rode waiver activity (63 moves) to 2nd place at 117-76-17. The 2026 Buckner Boots studied this blueprint — elite batter at #8 (Tucker), OBP depth, and pitching volume over aces.
| Rank | Team | Record | Pct | Moves | 2026 Grade |
|---|
| Scoring | Head-to-Head Categories |
| Teams | 10 |
| Draft Type | Live Snake Draft |
| Rounds | 23 |
| Roster | C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF×3,Util×2,SP×2,RP×2,P×4,BN×5,IL×3,NA |
| Playoffs | 6 Teams, Wks 23-25 (ends Sep 20) |
| Max Adds/Wk | 5 |
| Min IP/Wk | 30 |
| Batting | R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP |
| Pitching | SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS |
Busch Latte
Skenes’n on deez Hoerners
Ete Crow
The Ragans Administration
Keanu Reeves
Good Vibes Only
Rain City Bombers
The Buckner Boots
Decoy
One Ball Two Strikes