Week 9
May 18–May 24

OBT comes off a 2–7 L to Hey Holmes! that broke the three-week sim-upset streak. Garth dropped Foster Griffin and Janson Junk and added Jack Flaherty over the weekend, which thickens the active rotation behind Yamamoto, Alcantara, Eovaldi. Sale Skubal still IL and Peña now on the 10-day, which trims the lineup ceiling. The bullpen behind Jansen, Bednar, and Megill is solid. The K and SV edges in this matchup are both over 80%.

Nick-fil-A is coming off a 0–8–1 all-play disaster, the worst week any team has posted this season. Mario dropped Chris Bassitt on Sunday night and the rotation now leans on Latz, E. Rodriguez, Wrobleski, Davis Martin, and Mike Burrows. Cole, Glasnow, Snell, Helsley, Acuña all on IL. The lineup with James Wood, Junior Caminero, Konnor Griffin, Brice Turang, and Daylen Lile is still real, and Mason Miller anchors a pretty solid closer corps. Sim sees them as the underdog on the strikeout gap alone.

Sonny is the cumulative #1 in cat wins (397) with two straight elite weeks. The rotation, even with Ragans and Woodruff IL, just produced 75 K and a 0.93 WHIP. Aaron Judge (3 R, 0 HR last week) is the one bat that hasn’t fully clicked. Tatis Jr. and Ashcraft from the trade have integrated cleanly. Cal Raleigh and Wyatt Langford both on 10-day IL trims the lineup depth. The OBP edge and the rate-stat edges all sit in the 54–60% range.

Keanu is cumulative #2 in cat wins (400) and just dropped 16 HR / 34 RBI in a 7–3 H2H win. Schwarber is doing Schwarber things, Drake Baldwin and Colson Montgomery are both producing, Juan Soto added 2 HR / 2 SB. The closer trio (Chapman, Fairbanks, Soto) is the deepest in this matchup and the SV edge is at 72%. O’Hearn IL, Robert Jr. IL, Buxton DTD. Severino, Peralta, Taillon, Williams all healthy in the rotation. Max Fried still IL.

Hey Holmes! is fresh off the best all-play week any team has posted this season (8–1, 58 cat wins). Crochet still IL, Clay Holmes still IL, but Soroka is active and the bench is Gore, Cease, May, Bradish, Cantillo, plus Will Warren. Arenado got a full week to integrate and Suarez took over the closer spot. Altuve NA and Suarez IL knock the lineup ceiling. The K edge sits at 75% on the rotation depth alone.

Ete Crow lost 4–5 to Allahu in a week the rotation actually pitched (3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6 QS). Jace has Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Luzardo, Tolle, and Eury Pérez active. Tanner Scott and Raisel Iglesias share the closer load and the SV edge is at 83%. Elly De La Cruz, Vlad, Bellinger, Brandon Lowe, Salvador Perez carry the lineup. Hader still on 60-day IL. Matthew Boyd still IL.

Rain City tied Nick-fil-A 5–5 in a matchup the sim wanted them to win 6–4. The Trout addition went 0–0–0–0. Lindor, Roman Anthony, and Caballero all on IL. The lineup ceiling has shrunk. The Skenes / deGrom rotation is real and the K edge sits at 55%. Cade Smith piled 3 SV last week. Nasim Nuñez added on May 13 for SB cat insurance. Taylor still hasn’t lost an H2H game in three weeks.

Buckner went 3–4–2 last week and is now favored 72% over Rain City. Webb, Bradley, Strider all IL. Valdez still suspended. The rotation is Sale, Sasaki, Trevor Rogers in active slots with Hancock, Schultz, Messick, Ben Brown ready off the bench. The lineup, healthy, is Murakami, Tucker, Bregman, Gunnar, CJ Abrams, Yandy, Adley, Nimmo, Bleday, and now Ketel Marte on the bench. That’s top-3 in the league when everyone hits. Devin Williams anchors a closer corps that gets a 92% SV edge.

Busch comes off a 3–7 L to Keanu in which Rose led the league in SB (12) and OBP (.399) but the rotation gave up 6.00 ERA. Hunter Brown and Edwin Díaz both on 60-day IL gutted the staff. George Kirby and Tatsuya Imai anchor the rotation now with Senzatela, Weathers, plus Strider, Bubic, Soriano, Harrison, Misiorowski waiting on the bench. Aranda from the trade gets his first full Busch week. Sewald is the closer and the SV cat looks bad.

Allahu just took down Ete 5–4 with 39 R and a .372 OBP. Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan, Christian Walker, Max Muncy, Dillon Dingler all hit. Gausman is the lone active starter; Logan Gilbert, Bibee, Ranger Suarez, Bryce Miller, Spencer Arrighetti all sit bench. Pivetta IL, Steele 60-day IL, Kirk IL. Muñoz at closer with Var land and Domingo backing him up gives them a real SV edge.