Week 18
Jul 27–Aug 2

Third at 88–65–7 and fresh off the week’s best line: 9–1 over Day Old Rice with a 7–1–1 all-play and 64 category wins. Garth spent Sunday retooling the staff, adding Ronel Blanco and Erick Fedde and cutting Bo Bichette to do it, which tells you exactly where he thinks this matchup is won. With Carlos Rodón on the 15-day IL, the sim trusts the ratios (ERA 58 percent, WHIP 56) and the .370 on-base machine (68 percent) and almost nothing else.

Second at 86–61–13 and playing without Ronald Acuña Jr., who hit the 10-day IL with a hamstring. It has not mattered much: James Wood, Junior Caminero, and Hunter Goodman keep the counting stats humming, and the rotation runs deep with Cole, Baz, Woo, Robbie Ray, and Hunter Greene all healthy. Mario is favored in seven categories, but only HR and SB clear 65 percent, so this is a lean, not a lock.

The 95–48–17 machine rolls on: 8–2 over Buckner last week with league highs in homers (19) and RBI (63), a 7–1–1 all-play, and all of it with Aaron Judge on the 60-day IL. Raleigh, Tatis, and Kurtz keep the on-base edge at 70 percent, the single most reliable number in this matchup. The rotation behind Schlittler and Gray is more volume than dominance, which is why half these categories are coin flips.

Duke Joe put up 127 strikeouts last week, most in the league by 9, and somehow only got a 5–5 tie with Busch Latte out of it. The lineup is wounded: Juan Soto (calf) and Matt Chapman (abdomen) are both on the 10-day IL and Colson Montgomery is day to day. The sim still hands Keanu five categories, the power counting stats and the QS/SV side of the pitching ledger, because Rasmussen, Sánchez, and Peralta keep taking the ball deep.

The first team in league history to 100 losses, and yet the bats refuse to read the standings: Harper, Betts, Alonso, Julio, and Ben Rice give Michael real edges in R, RBI, and OBP this week. The pitching remains performance art. He cut Garrett Crochet loose on July 22, which is certainly a decision, and the staff is now a six-man rotation of streamers fronted by Bieber and Cease with Fairbanks as the only real save source.

The hottest team in the league, full stop: 8–1 all-play in Week 16, 7–0–2 in Week 17, and a climb from the basement to sixth. Jace’s bullpen of Hader, Iglesias, and Scott makes saves a 72 percent edge, and the SB edge (66 percent) rides Elly and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bellinger hit the 10-day IL with a hamstring, and the Sunday additions of Jo Adell and Gabriel Moreno patch the outfield and catcher spots.

Taylor just authored the worst week of the 2026 season: 0–9 all-play, 26 category wins out of 90, all while posting the league’s best ERA at 2.65. That is genuinely difficult. Skenes, deGrom, and Wheeler keep the ratio categories live (WHIP 56 percent), and the SB lean rides the Lindor and Caballero legs. Will Smith (neck), Blake Snell (elbow), and Max Meyer (neck) are all on the IL, and the offense around Machado and Lindor has flatlined.

Quietly a decent week for Michael despite the 2–8 scoreboard: 5–4 all-play with a 1.07 WHIP, he just happened to draw the buzzsaw top seed. The sim likes the full profile here: seven category edges, with the 91 percent saves number (Devin Williams and Bryan Baker against a Rain City pen the model does not trust) the most lopsided call of the week. Seager (back), Ben Brown (neck), and Palencia (elbow) stay on the IL, but Valdez, Webb, Sasaki, and Sale give the rotation plenty of healthy arms.

Rose tied Keanu 5–5 last week and has not won a matchup since the calendar said June, but the sim sees the cleanest offensive edge of the week: favored in all five hitting categories, with runs at 71 percent and steals at 69 behind Ohtani, Carroll, and Chisholm. The problem is the ninth inning. Edwin Díaz is on the 60-day IL with Bubic and Harrison also down, leaving Sewald as the lone closer, and a 17 percent saves number.

TylerR led the league in OBP (.373) and saves (8) last week and still lost 6–3 to a red-hot Ete Crow. The pitching side stays sturdy: Gilbert, Gausman, Suarez, and Jones stack the K and QS leans, and the Muñoz, Varland, Lange pen makes saves an 83 percent edge. The lineup is thinner than the name value suggests with Bobby Witt Jr. (back) and Oneil Cruz (hand) both on the IL, which is exactly why all five bat categories tilt Busch.