Week 4
Apr 13–Apr 19

Garth is coming off an 8-1 all-play week powered by Jordan Walker (6 HR) and Chase DeLauter (5 HR). The rotation runs Skubal, Yamamoto, Alcantara, Sasaki, and Civale, which is elite on paper but Rodón and Yesavage are both on IL-15. The pitching depth is thinner than it looks. One Ball owns OBP (.395 last week, league best) and has sneaky edges in ERA and WHIP. The saves situation with Bednar is solid. The problem is everything on the other side of the matchup.

Duke Joe is 17-3 and running a ten-deep rotation: Wacha, Peralta, Cameron, Cabrera, Abbott, Rasmussen, Sánchez, Fried, Williams, and Baz. The K edge is 86% and QS is 74%. The Soto IL-10 (calf) dents the offense but Drake Baldwin (14 R, 5 HR, 16 RBI last week), Zach Neto (14 R, 5 HR), and Kyle Schwarber (4 HR) cover for it. This roster just won 8 of 10 categories against GVO and the pitching staff has not shown a single weakness in three weeks.

TylerV has the deepest rotation in the league: Ragans, Ohtani (pitcher), Schlittler, McClanahan, Gallen, Woodruff, King, Castillo, Keller, and Sheehan. That is ten healthy arms. The K edge is 88%, the most lopsided single-category advantage of the week. Andy Pages (17 RBI, .482 OBP in Week 3) continues to anchor an offense that does just enough. The only weakness is SB, where Ragans has no speed whatsoever.

Rose's injury report is catastrophic. Springer (IL-10), Reynaldo López (suspended), Harrison (DTD), Brown (IL-15), Miller (IL-15), Strider (IL-15). Six pitchers compromised. Kirby, Liberatore, Soriano, Bubic, Imai (DTD), and Misiorowski are what remains. The offense has Ohtani (batter), Sal Stewart (.469 OBP last week), and Jazz Chisholm (6 SB), which gives Busch the SB edge at 73%. But when your opponent has Ohtani throwing and you're running Kris Bubic, the math is ugly.

Mario just pulled off the biggest upset of the season, beating Allahu at 16% win probability. The rotation is Glasnow, Chandler, Povich, Houser, Martin, Sugano, Woo, and Ray, but Cole (IL-15), Snell (IL-15), and Eflin (IL-60) are all out. The offense has James Wood (12 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI last week), Brice Turang (5 SB), and Stanton on the bench. The R edge (55%) is real but thin, and that is literally the only category where Mario is favored.

Michael is 5-12-3 and just took an 8-2 beating from Keanu. The IL list is brutal: Rooker (IL-10), Stowers (IL-10), Betts (IL-10), Pepiot (IL-15). But the remaining pitching staff is actually strong: Crochet, Cease, Scherzer, Littell, Gore, Bradish, Vásquez, Freeland (DTD), and Grant Holmes. The K edge is 90%, the most dominant single-category number in any matchup this week. Ben Rice (.500 OBP, 4 HR last week) is carrying the offense. If the bats show up, this should be comfortable.

Jace owns two categories and two categories only: SB (85%) and K (86%). De La Cruz, Marsee, and Caballero run the bases. Ryan, Pérez, Nola, Gray, Taillon, and Patrick throw strikes. Chourio (IL-10, hand) and Hader (IL-15) are out, which hurts the offense and eliminates the closer. The .292 OBP from Week 3 was the worst in the league. Jace needs his lineup to get on base before the speedsters can run.

Taylor's rotation just posted a 1.69 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in Week 3, proving the Week 2 disaster was an outlier. Skenes, deGrom, Imanaga, and Flaherty are legitimate. Wheeler (IL-15), Kelly (IL-15), and Lodolo (IL-15) are all out, which caps the upside. The offense (Soler, Hicks, Bell, Tatis on bench) hits for power but doesn't run. Rain City has the R (58%), HR (62%), and OBP (66%) edges. If the pitching holds anywhere near Week 3 levels, Taylor wins.

TylerR's roster is crumbling. Westburg (IL-60), Holliday (IL-10), Steele (IL-60), Henderson (NA), and Pivetta (DTD) are all out or compromised. The remaining rotation is Gilbert, Bibee, Senga, Gausman, Cavalli, Suárez, and Springs, which is serviceable but not dominant. Yordan Alvarez (6 HR, .515 OBP last week) and Oneil Cruz (4 HR, 5 SB) are still elite, but Bobby Witt Jr. scored 1 run in Week 3 despite stealing 8 bases. The RBI edge (53%) is the only category where Allahu is favored.

The Buckner Boots are 14-5-1 and just settled for a 4-4 tie against Busch Latte because the bullpen produced zero saves. The pitching staff runs Sale, Bradley, Webb, Valdez, Leiter, Messick, Hancock, Cantillo, and Rogers. Rutschman (IL-10, ankle) is out, but Gunnar Henderson (6 HR, 12 RBI last week) and CJ Abrams (15 RBI, 4 SB) are terrorizing the league. Michael needs saves this week or the offense is wasted again.