Week 13
Jun 15–Jun 21

Garth comes off a 4–6 loss to Rain City and now draws a buzzsaw without José Ramírez, who landed on the 10-day IL. The bats can still mash, they hit a league-high 17 homers last week, but losing JRam narrows the R and RBI edges and Casey Mize on the IL thins the rotation. A tough draw at a bad time.

Duke Joe is humming: a 6–3 win last week and league-leading totals in K (85) and SV (5). Josh Naylor is day-to-day and Max Fried is still on the IL, but the strikeout and save edges are real and the model makes Keanu a clear favorite. Freddy Peralta and the bullpen do the heavy lifting.

The standings leader is limping in. Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge are both on the 10-day IL, gutting the lineup, and Cole Ragans is out too. What’s left is the pitching: the model gives Sonny an 82% edge in K and slight edges in WHIP and QS. TylerV wins this on the mound or not at all.

Rose is coming off an 8–2 win and owns the batting categories on paper, with edges in R, HR, RBI, SB, and OBP. The catch is health: Seiya Suzuki, Randy Arozarena, and José Soriano are all day-to-day, and the bullpen is thin with Edwin Díaz and Hunter Brown on the 60-day IL. If the bats are active, Busch can steal it.

Mario’s pitching has fallen apart. Hunter Greene and Tyler Glasnow are on the 60-day IL, Ryan Helsley is on the 15-day, and the model now projects Nick to get buried in SV (8%) and K (10%). The bats still profile well, with edges in R, SB, and OBP, but a staff this thin is a problem against anyone.

The last-place roster is somehow the model’s favorite here, and it is entirely about pitching volume: Romance projects to dominate SV and K against Nick’s depleted staff. Brent Rooker and Teoscar Hernández are on the IL so the bats are light, but the arms are enough to flip this one.

Jace is reeling after an 0-category shutout last week and now plays without Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL), with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. day-to-day. The model still gives Ete the HR, RBI, and SV edges, so the bats and bullpen can keep it interesting, but the rotation that managed one quality start last week has to show up.

Taylor is the hottest team in the league after a 9–0 all-play week and a 6–4 win, with the league’s best ERA (2.63) and QS (7). Francisco Lindor is on the IL, but Nick Martinez and Paul Skenes anchor a rotation that is carrying everything right now. The model likes Rain City to keep rolling.

TylerR is red-hot, an 8–1 win and a league-best 1.09 WHIP last week, but the model is fading him here. Oneil Cruz is on the 10-day IL and closer Andrés Muñoz is day-to-day, which dents both the speed and the saves. Even the hottest team draws a tough matchup eventually.

Michael’s other roster gets the nod almost everywhere, with edges in eight categories, though several are thin. Munetaka Murakami is on the IL and Corey Seager is day-to-day, but Kyle Tucker and a steady pitching staff give Buckner the broad-based edge. After a quiet 1–8 all-play week, this projects as a bounce-back.