Week 15
Jun 29–Jul 5

One Ball sits fifth but has been treading water, and the Week 14 tie with Ete did nothing for a lineup that managed six homers. Garth’s edge is on the mound: the model gives him strikeouts, both ratios, and saves, the last of those helped by Busch closer Edwin Díaz landing on the 60-day IL. José Ramírez is on the 10-day IL, which thins the offense further.

Busch is the pick despite the worse record. Rose owns every hitting category in the sim, runs, homers, RBI, steals, and OBP, plus quality starts, and that is enough to carry a 6–4 even while conceding the bullpen. Dominic Canzone is day-to-day and Kris Bubic is on the 15-day IL, but the bats are deep enough to absorb it.

The number-one seed is rolling: a 9–0 all-play week and a league-best 113 strikeouts in an 8–1 demolition. Sonny owns steals, strikeouts, OBP, and both ratios here even with Aaron Judge, Wyatt Langford, and Brendan Donovan all IL-stashed, because the active lineup is still the deepest in the league.

Romance just turned in the worst week any team has had, 0–9 all-play with a 6.31 ERA, and the injury sheet is brutal: Garrett Crochet on the 60-day IL, with Teoscar Hernández and Brent Rooker on the 10-day. The bats still punch above the pitching, which is why the sim hands Romance homers, RBI, and saves, but that is a thin lifeline against the top seed.

Nick-fil-A is red-hot, an 8–1 all-play week powered by league-highs in homers (19) and RBI (39), and the power should travel: the sim gives Mario the homer edge. But the rest of the board is a problem. Ronald Acuña is on the 10-day IL and Hunter Greene and Tyler Glasnow are both on the 60-day, gutting the rotation.

Buckner backs up its 8–2 Week 14 rout with the better all-around profile, owning OBP in a blowout (82%), saves, quality starts, and both ratios. Munetaka Murakami is on the 10-day IL and Yandy Díaz is day-to-day, but Michael’s pitching depth is the difference in a matchup the model likes him to win clearly.

The number-two seed is coming off a clunker, 2–7 all-play and a 7–2 loss with just four homers, and the model has Keanu as a slight underdog at home. Duke Joe still grades out ahead in runs, homers, OBP, and strikeouts, and Max Fried on the 15-day IL is the only real injury concern.

Ete is the upset pick, favored in six categories despite sitting ninth. Jace’s edges are steals, both ratios, quality starts, and saves, where the sim hands him a commanding 72 percent. The one cloud is Elly De La Cruz being day-to-day; if he sits, the steal and run edges shrink in a hurry.

Rain City keeps doing one thing well: running. The sim hands Taylor steals in a landslide (82%) and gives him OBP and both ratios, but the power outage continues at six homers a week. Mike Trout, Will Smith, and Blake Snell are all on the IL, though the saves picture is the bigger problem.

Allahu is favored even after getting steamrolled 8–1 last week, because the sim sees a saves edge so lopsided it is almost comic: Rain City wins the category just 2 percent of the time. TylerR also takes homers and RBI. Oneil Cruz is on the 10-day IL and Nick Pivetta on the 60-day, but the back-end bullpen advantage carries it.