Week 2
Mar 30–Apr 5

Garth W goes into Week 2 having lost the H2H but finishing third in all-play, which means the team is better than the record. The problem is the rotation keeps thinning: Rodon (IL15, elbow) and Yesavage (IL15, shoulder) are both out, leaving Skubal, Yamamoto, and Connelly Early as the three active starters again. That trio was excellent in Week 1, combining for 64 K, but it's three deep in a league where everyone else is rolling out five. The offense is solid but the OBP was only .288 last week, which is why Buckner beat them.

TylerV won 5–3 last week and went 2–7 in all-play. That gap tells you everything about the schedule gift. Against One Ball, Ragans gets a real test: Skubal and Yamamoto are legitimately two of the best SPs in the league. The advantage Ragans has is volume: five active starters including Ohtani (who took 0 starts in Week 1 and is expected to go this week), King, Ragans, Schlittler, and Castillo. The K edge at 91% is the most dominant single-category advantage in any matchup this week.

Mario goes into Week 2 with no active starting pitchers. Blake Snell (IL15) and Gerrit Cole (IL15) were apparently both in SP slots, and with both out, the active roster currently shows zero starters. Glasnow, Woo, Singer, and Warren are all sitting on the bench waiting to be activated, but as of the simulation, Ray Donovan is projecting 0% in K probability and 0% in QS. That is not a rounding error. That is a roster management emergency. The offense is fine: Donovan, Stanton, Wood, and Caminero can score runs. But giving away two categories before the first pitch is a brutal way to start a week.

Rose won 7–2 in Week 1 and the pitching was the story: 2.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, Edwin Díaz with 2 saves. The batting lineup added Willy Adames and Corbin Carroll for Week 2, which is a legitimate upgrade. Hunter Brown and George Kirby are both healthy and projecting well. The K advantage over Ray is effectively total: the sim doesn't even bother computing a probability on that one. Seiya Suzuki is IL10 (knee) but he's bench depth at this point.

GVO went 0–9 in all-play and 2–7 in H2H last week, the worst performance in the league. Michael's rotation situation has not improved: Burnes, Hunter Greene, and Schwellenbach are all still 60-day IL stashed, Pepiot is IL15, and Bieber is IL15. Crochet, Bradish, Gore, Sproat, and Quintana are all active, which is five starters and should be enough to compete. The offense (.281 OBP, 16 runs last week) needs to wake up. Rooker especially.

TylerR started the season 2–8 in H2H categories and 2–6–1 in all-play. Westburg and Holliday are both IL10, Steele is 60-day, and Logan Henderson is Not Active. The rotation is Pivetta, Gausman, Suarez, and Cavalli: four starters, not deep, but all capable. Tanner Bibee is DTD with a shoulder issue. The bullpen is actually four deep with Munoz, Pagan, Abreu, and Uribe, which explains Skenes' consistent SV edges. Both teams are a mess. The sim calls this a coin flip with a slight lean Skenes.

Duke Joe went 9–0 in all-play and is coming in off the most dominant Week 1 performance in the league. The six-starter rotation (Sanchez, Fried, Peralta, Abbott, Wacha, Baz) is fully intact, and the K edge at 78% is the clearest pitching advantage in any matchup this week. The lineup has Soto and Schwarber at the top, Neto and Montgomery in the middle, and nothing obvious to exploit.

Taylor has Paul Skenes, which most teams would trade anything for, but the rest of the rotation is a disaster. Wheeler (IL15), Kelly (IL15), and Lodolo (IL15) are all out. deGrom is DTD with a neck issue. The active starters are Burrows, Lugo, and Sasaki, which is three arms against Keanu's six. Fernando Tatis Jr. is back active for Week 2, and Lindor, Yelich, Machado, and Harris are all healthy, so the lineup has real pop. Rain City's OBP edge (60%) is legitimate. It just won't be enough to overcome the pitching volume gap.

Jace Allison's closer situation is now officially a problem. Josh Hader (IL15, biceps) is out for at least two more weeks. Carlos Estévez is DTD with an ankle issue. Jackson Chourio is IL10. Iglesias is healthy but had 0 saves in Week 1. The sim gives Buckner a 71% SV edge, which is what happens when three of your closers are either injured or haven't closed yet. The bright spots: Eury Pérez's 27-K Week 1 was real, the rotation (Pérez, Luzardo, McLean, Ryan) is projecting well for K and ERA, and the lineup has legitimate speed with De La Cruz, Crow-Armstrong, and Caballero all contributing steals.

Michael's Buckner Boots went 8–1 in all-play last week and Kyle Tucker is now active on the Week 2 roster, which is a material upgrade over whatever he was missing in Week 1. The core lineup (Henderson, Bregman, Seager, Murakami, Rutschman, Nimmo, Kwan, Díaz) didn't even fire on all cylinders last week and still went 8–1. Devin Williams is active in the bullpen but put up 0 saves in Week 1. The SV edge over Ete is about organizational depth, not individual closer quality. Framber Valdez and Cade Horton anchor the rotation.