← Back to original report (vs. 2025 baseline)

Did the WBC Wreck Early-Season Numbers?

2026 Actual wRC+ vs. ZiPS 2026 Projections — controlling for regression to the mean

Data: FanGraphs ZiPS · pybaseball · April 2, 2026 · Min 15 PA · n=53 WBC batters
Why ZiPS instead of 2025 stats? A fair critique of the original report: WBC selects elite players who may have overperformed in 2025 and were due to regress regardless. ZiPS projections are built from a player's full career history and already price in that regression. Underperforming your ZiPS number is a cleaner signal of something actually wrong.
The original finding held. WBC players are down 22.2 pts vs their ZiPS projections on average. Non-WBC players are down only 2.7 pts. The 19.5-point gap is nearly identical to the original 20.4-pt gap vs 2025 actuals. Regression to the mean does not explain this away.
WBC Players — Actual vs. ZiPS
-22.2
ZiPS proj. 114 → 2026 actual 91 · n=53
Non-WBC Players — Actual vs. ZiPS
-2.7
ZiPS proj. 105 → 2026 actual 103 · n=210
WBC Extra Gap vs. Non-WBC
-19.5 pts
After controlling for regression, WBC players still trail by 19.5 pts more than non-WBC peers

Actual vs. ZiPS Projection: Group Gap

Bars = underperformance vs ZiPS, scaled to 25 pts max. ZiPS already prices in regression to the mean.

WBC Players
−22.2 pts
proj 114 → 91
Non-WBC Players
−2.7 pts
proj 105 → 103

Non-WBC players are basically on pace with ZiPS (−2.7 pts is within early-season noise). WBC players trailing by 22.2 pts is not.

Most Below ZiPS Projection
Josh Naylor
Canada
-49
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 124
▼ 173 pts vs proj
30 PA
Julio Rodríguez
Dominican Republic
2
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 129
▼ 127 pts vs proj
30 PA
Aaron Judge
USA
52
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 178
▼ 126 pts vs proj
25 PA
Spencer Horwitz
Israel
-4
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 117
▼ 121 pts vs proj
16 PA
Nolan Arenado
Puerto Rico
-13
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 95
▼ 108 pts vs proj
19 PA
Most Above ZiPS Projection
Jonathan Aranda
Mexico
188
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 119
▲ 69 pts vs proj
29 PA
Oneil Cruz
Dominican Republic
187
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 114
▲ 73 pts vs proj
24 PA
Andrés Giménez
Venezuela
193
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 96
▲ 97 pts vs proj
24 PA
Brice Turang
USA
244
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 104
▲ 140 pts vs proj
27 PA
Wilyer Abreu
Venezuela
281
2026 wRC+
ZiPS: 110
▲ 171 pts vs proj
24 PA

All WBC Batters: ZiPS Projection vs. 2026 Actual wRC+

Sorted most below projection to most above. Min 15 PA. Pitchers excluded. Corbin Carroll excluded (did not play WBC due to injury).

PlayerCountry ZiPS Proj2026 Actual vs. ZiPSPA
Josh Naylor Canada 124 -49 ▼ 173 30
Julio Rodríguez Dominican Republic 129 2 ▼ 127 30
Aaron Judge USA 178 52 ▼ 126 25
Spencer Horwitz Israel 117 -4 ▼ 121 16
Nolan Arenado Puerto Rico 95 -13 ▼ 108 19
Bryce Harper USA 131 23 ▼ 108 27
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Great Britain 115 15 ▼ 100 24
Ronald Acuña Jr. Venezuela 157 62 ▼ 95 26
Jeremy Peña Dominican Republic 106 14 ▼ 92 15
Bo Naylor Canada 99 8 ▼ 91 20
Willi Castro Puerto Rico 97 10 ▼ 87 25
Cal Raleigh USA 131 46 ▼ 85 28
Xander Bogaerts Netherlands 105 22 ▼ 83 25
Austin Wells Dominican Republic 104 28 ▼ 76 17
Heliot Ramos Puerto Rico 112 45 ▼ 67 24
José Caballero Panama 88 25 ▼ 63 22
Shohei Ohtani Japan 165 107 ▼ 58 26
Byron Buxton USA 125 67 ▼ 58 21
Willson Contreras Dominican Republic 120 69 ▼ 51 26
Gunnar Henderson USA 133 100 ▼ 33 25
Harrison Bader Israel 98 67 ▼ 31 23
Yoán Moncada Cuba 105 75 ▼ 30 18
Vinnie Pasquantino Italy 115 90 ▼ 25 25
Roman Anthony USA 122 99 ▼ 23 22
Pete Crow-Armstrong USA 111 88 ▼ 23 22
Tyler O'Neill Canada 118 99 ▼ 19 17
Jarren Duran Dominican Republic 113 95 ▼ 18 26
Ceddanne Rafaela Netherlands 98 80 ▼ 18 22
Fernando Tatis Jr. Dominican Republic 137 122 ▼ 15 22
Kyle Schwarber USA 127 118 ▼ 9 26
Salvador Perez Venezuela 99 90 ▼ 9 22
William Contreras Venezuela 122 120 ▼ 2 20
Miguel Amaya Panama 95 95 ▼ 0 22
Alek Thomas Mexico 87 88 ▲ 1 20
Alex Bregman USA 112 115 ▲ 3 24
Jung Hoo Lee Korea 108 115 ▲ 7 26
Juan Soto Dominican Republic 162 170 ▲ 8 29
Ozzie Albies Netherlands 98 108 ▲ 10 23
Ezequiel Tovar Venezuela 92 107 ▲ 15 27
Luis Arraez Venezuela 113 130 ▲ 17 27
Nick Gonzales Mexico 99 119 ▲ 20 28
Joey Ortiz Mexico 98 120 ▲ 22 20
Jake Gelof Israel 56 78 ▲ 22 19
Gleyber Torres Venezuela 110 133 ▲ 23 25
Manny Machado Dominican Republic 116 140 ▲ 24 24
Randy Arozarena Mexico 116 144 ▲ 28 30
Maikel Garcia Venezuela 100 138 ▲ 38 21
Jac Caglianone Italy 117 175 ▲ 58 16
Jonathan Aranda Mexico 119 188 ▲ 69 29
Oneil Cruz Dominican Republic 114 187 ▲ 73 24
Andrés Giménez Venezuela 96 193 ▲ 97 24
Brice Turang USA 104 244 ▲ 140 27
Wilyer Abreu Venezuela 110 281 ▲ 171 24
ZiPS projections via FanGraphs · 2026 actual stats via pybaseball · WBC rosters via MLB.com · April 2, 2026
wRC+ = 100 is league average, park and league adjusted. ZiPS = Dan Szymborski's projection system.