Did the WBC Wreck Early-Season Numbers?

2026 wRC+ comparison: WBC participants vs. their own 2025 baselines, and vs. non-WBC players

Data: FanGraphs via pybaseball · As of April 2, 2026 · Min 15 PA
Small sample warning: We're 1-2 weeks into the season. Most players have 15-30 PA. Early-season wRC+ is extremely noisy. Individual player numbers are directional, not definitive. The aggregate group comparison is where the real signal lives.
WBC Players — Avg wRC+ Change
-25.5
From 115 (2025) to 90 (2026) · n=53
Non-WBC Players — Avg wRC+ Change
-6.6
From 104 (2025) to 98 (2026) · n=188
WBC vs. Non-WBC Extra Drop
-18.9 pts
WBC players underperform their 2025 baseline by 18.9 more points than non-WBC peers

Year-Over-Year wRC+ Drop: Group Comparison

Bars scaled to max 32 pts. WBC players fell nearly 4x more than non-WBC players from their 2025 baselines.

WBC Players
−25.5 pts
115 → 90
Non-WBC Players
−6.6 pts
104 → 98

Both groups regress from their full-season 2025 baselines early in the year. That's normal. WBC players falling 4x more is not.

How to read this: Each player's 2025 wRC+ (full season, min 100 PA) is the baseline, their "baseball card" number. Their 2026 wRC+ is what they've done through the first 1-2 weeks. The WBC ran March 5-17, ending just days before Opening Day. The question: are WBC participants slower to ramp up than guys who spent those weeks in standard spring training?

Control group logic: Early-season wRC+ always drops from full-season norms due to small samples and cold weather, so comparing WBC players to non-WBC players' drop controls for that baseline noise. WBC players are down 25.5 pts on average. Non-WBC players are down only 6.6 pts. The 18.9-point gap is the WBC-specific effect, if real.
Biggest Dropoffs
Josh Naylor
Canada
-49 ← 128
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▼ 177 pts
30 PA
Aaron Judge
USA
52 ← 204
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▼ 152 pts
25 PA
Julio Rodríguez
Dominican Republic
2 ← 126
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▼ 124 pts
30 PA
Spencer Horwitz
Israel
-4 ← 119
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▼ 123 pts
16 PA
Jeremy Peña
Dominican Republic
14 ← 135
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▼ 121 pts
15 PA
WBC Hasn't Slowed These Guys
Wilyer Abreu
Venezuela
281 ← 110
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▲ 171 pts
24 PA
Jac Caglianone
Italy
175 ← 46
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▲ 129 pts
16 PA
Andrés Giménez
Venezuela
193 ← 70
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▲ 123 pts
24 PA
Brice Turang
USA
244 ← 124
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▲ 120 pts
27 PA
Oneil Cruz
Dominican Republic
187 ← 86
2026 vs. 2025 wRC+
▲ 101 pts
24 PA

All WBC Batters: 2025 vs. 2026 wRC+

Sorted worst to best. Min 15 PA in 2026. Pitchers excluded. 2025 baseline requires min 100 PA full season.

Player Country 2025 wRC+ 2026 wRC+ Change 2026 PA
Josh Naylor Canada 128 -49 ▼ 177 30
Aaron Judge USA 204 52 ▼ 152 25
Julio Rodríguez Dominican Republic 126 2 ▼ 124 30
Spencer Horwitz Israel 119 -4 ▼ 123 16
Jeremy Peña Dominican Republic 135 14 ▼ 121 15
Cal Raleigh USA 161 46 ▼ 115 28
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Great Britain 126 15 ▼ 111 24
Bryce Harper USA 131 23 ▼ 108 27
Ronald Acuña Jr. Venezuela 161 62 ▼ 99 26
Nolan Arenado Puerto Rico 84 -13 ▼ 97 19
Willi Castro Puerto Rico 92 10 ▼ 82 25
Xander Bogaerts Netherlands 104 22 ▼ 82 25
Bo Naylor Canada 85 8 ▼ 77 20
José Caballero Panama 97 25 ▼ 72 22
Byron Buxton USA 136 67 ▼ 69 21
Austin Wells Dominican Republic 94 28 ▼ 66 17
Shohei Ohtani Japan 172 107 ▼ 65 26
Heliot Ramos Puerto Rico 106 45 ▼ 61 24
Willson Contreras Dominican Republic 124 69 ▼ 55 26
Harrison Bader Israel 122 67 ▼ 55 23
Roman Anthony USA 140 89 ▼ 51 25
Gunnar Henderson USA 120 71 ▼ 49 28
Jarren Duran Dominican Republic 111 72 ▼ 39 23
Alek Thomas Mexico 81 44 ▼ 37 20
Vinnie Pasquantino Italy 116 80 ▼ 36 21
Pete Crow-Armstrong USA 109 76 ▼ 33 26
Fernando Tatis Jr. Dominican Republic 131 102 ▼ 29 25
Eugenio Suárez Dominican Republic 125 100 ▼ 25 24
Jung Hoo Lee Korea 107 86 ▼ 21 24
Yoán Moncada Cuba 117 96 ▼ 21 27
Salvador Perez Venezuela 95 80 ▼ 15 21
Ceddanne Rafaela Netherlands 91 76 ▼ 15 20
Kyle Schwarber USA 152 138 ▼ 14 27
Luis Arraez Venezuela 104 92 ▼ 12 25
Gleyber Torres Venezuela 113 106 ▼ 7 27
William Contreras Venezuela 113 114 ▲ 1 27
Alex Bregman USA 125 127 ▲ 2 28
Ozzie Albies Netherlands 87 90 ▲ 3 24
Tyler O'Neill Canada 91 99 ▲ 8 17
Juan Soto Dominican Republic 156 170 ▲ 14 29
Maikel Garcia Venezuela 121 138 ▲ 17 21
Manny Machado Dominican Republic 123 140 ▲ 17 24
Randy Arozarena Mexico 120 144 ▲ 24 30
Ezequiel Tovar Venezuela 78 107 ▲ 29 27
Nick Gonzales Mexico 82 119 ▲ 37 28
Jonathan Aranda Mexico 146 188 ▲ 42 29
Joey Ortiz Mexico 67 120 ▲ 53 20
Corbin Carroll USA 139 211 ▲ 72 25
Oneil Cruz Dominican Republic 86 187 ▲ 101 24
Brice Turang USA 124 244 ▲ 120 27
Andrés Giménez Venezuela 70 193 ▲ 123 24
Jac Caglianone Italy 46 175 ▲ 129 16
Wilyer Abreu Venezuela 110 281 ▲ 171 24
Data from FanGraphs (via pybaseball) · WBC rosters via MLB.com · Generated April 2, 2026
wRC+ = 100 is league average, park and league adjusted. 2025 baseline = min 100 PA.